Beneath the UK election results

Economist Paul Gosling says that the United Kingdom is becoming less a single country and more a collection of four nations as Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales are all now led by nationalist parties with objectives to leave the UK.

In England, meanwhile, Reform UK is leading in the opinion polls. Despite its name, Reform is perceived to be more English than UK.

However, it is important to look below the headlines. In none of the devolved nations did the nationalist parties gain a majority of the vote. As with Labour in the last UK elections, they won power because of the multiplicity of parties splitting the total vote.

In Scotland, the SNP got 38 per cent of the constituency vote and 27 per cent of the additional regional vote. This yielded 58 seats (45 per cent of them) and a governing majority through coalition with the Greens (15 seats, a 2.3 per cent constituency vote, plus a 14 per cent regional vote). Four other parties (Reform, Labour, Conservatives, and Lib Dems) won seats to the Scottish Parliament. John Swinney remains First Minister.

It was similar in Wales. Plaid Cymru is the largest party in the Senedd, with 43 seats. This represents a 44.8 per cent share of members from a 35.4 per cent share of the vote. Reform came second with 34 seats; 35.4 per cent of members from 29.3 per cent of the vote. Four other parties; Labour, Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats, won seats. Plaid’s Rhun ap Iorwerth MS is First Minister, leading a minority administration.

In Northern Ireland in 2022, Sinn Féin obtained 29.0 per cent of the first preference vote, while the other nationalist party, the SDLP, gained 9.1 per cent; a total nationalist vote of 38.1 per cent.

So while the headlines say the three devolved nations are all led by nationalists, none has a nationalist voting majority. Nationalist votes in each has been between 35.4 per cent and 38.1 per cent.

Let us not get carried away, but nor should the cause of independence be ignored. What do we know about those who did not vote? In the Scottish referendum, the crucial electorate was those who voted in the referendum, but not for its parliament.

Secondly, there was anecdotal evidence from Wales that the Plaid Cymru vote was boosted by those who wanted to stop Reform. The SNP probably benefited similarly. A vote for a nationalist party is not always a vote to leave the UK.

And the electorate is constantly changing. In Northern Ireland, the Life and Times Survey shows that younger votes coming onto the electoral register tend to be more nationalist than those who drop off. Religious and identity demographics play a part, especially in Northern Ireland, but younger people are also generally keener for change.

Then we have Reform UK. As of May 2026, Reform were leading in British opinion polling, averaging 28.1 per cent of support. This was nearly 10 per cent ahead of the Conservatives and Labour, and 14 per cent above the Greens. If that vote were replicated in a general election, Reform and Nigel Farage MP would be in line to form a government.

There is a lack of clarity around Reform’s policies, but it is perceived to be focused on England. Its policies talk about ‘upholding British traditions’, which might upset nationalists, as would likely cuts to devolved budgets. Farage himself has made inconsistent comments about the prospects for Irish unity.

In short, nationalists winning the devolved elections is not evidence of the UK splitting up. But the election of a Reform government might provoke exactly that, or it might not. It is still all to play for as far as unionists and nationalists are concerned across all of the UK. But we can expect Sinn Féin to talk up the discussion, which is not about to go away.