Comparing disability rates north and south
A notably higher proportion of people experience severe disabilities in Northern Ireland compared to the Republic, according to research by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
The report, How do disability rates differ across the island of Ireland?, published in April 2026, outlines that overall disability rates among 20-69-year-olds are very similar in both states, at 23 per cent in Northern Ireland and 22 per cent in Ireland, based on their respective census questions.
However, the severity of disability differs significantly, with Northern Ireland recording a notably higher share of people experiencing more severe disabilities, 11 per cent compared to 6 per cent in Ireland. Disability rates rise with age in both jurisdictions, but the age gradient is much steeper in Northern Ireland.
Among its findings, the ESRI states that higher educational attainment is strongly associated with lower disability rates, particularly in Northern Ireland, and unpaid caring roles are linked to a higher likelihood of reporting a disability, especially in Ireland.
Interestingly, the report says that while local labour market conditions exert some influence, the effects are relatively minimal in both states. The ESRI states: “This is considerably different to what is found in the international literature on disability but is in line with previous findings for Northern Ireland.”
Disability rates
Expanding on disability and severe disability rates, the ESRI says that the increase rates of disability in Northern Ireland are consistent with its weaker economic performance, higher levels of deprivation, and the lasting effects of the conflict.
“In all of our models, we find that the probability of disability increases with age and declines with educational attainment. However, we find substantial differences in the influences of these variables between regions across the island and according to the severity of disability.
“Significant differences also occur with respect to religious background, ethnicity, and local labour market characteristics across both jurisdictions on the island. This may be reflective of a range of differences across the island; migration in particular differs considerably north and south.
“While health care, social care, social security systems, and the local labour market all differ across the island, these are likely to interact in context-specific ways and impact how disability manifests.”
The report also finds that holding a third-level qualification reduces the probability of disability by around 7 per cent in the Republic, compared with a 15 per cent reduction in Northern Ireland relative to the reference category.
Similarly, although the likelihood of disability increases with age in both regions, the effect is far stronger in Northern Ireland: being aged between 60 and 69 raises the probability of disability by 38 per cent, compared with 16 per cent in Ireland relative to those who are 20-29 years of age.
Unpaid caregiving also shows contrasting impacts, increasing the likelihood of disability by 7 per cent the South but only 1 per cent in Northern Ireland. This is particularly important as the relationship between social security and disability does not account for those with disabilities also being carers and vice versa.
Gender differences are apparent between the jurisdictions. Women are 2 per cent more likely to report disability in the Republic compared to men, whereas in Northern Ireland they are slightly less likely to do so. The ESRI states that this may be due to differences in how gender interacts with the labour market or other relevant policies, or the conflict effect in Northern Ireland may lead to higher rates of disability amongst men.
While disability prevalence is broadly similar across Ireland and Northern Ireland, the severity and underlying factors associated with disability differ substantially. Observable characteristics explain much of the variation in Northern Ireland, whereas unobserved factors play a larger role in Ireland, complicating policy design.
In this context, the ESRI states: “Conflict-proofing policy and considering the Northern Ireland-specific context is crucial in relevant policymaking. It is also possible there is a spillover from the conflict to Ireland and while this is an area for further research, it may also be prudent to consider a conflict impact in Ireland, given the levels of mobility across the border.”
Commenting on the findings, author of the ESRI report, Anne Devlin says: “We find rates of overall disability are similar across the jurisdictions, but if we focus on more severe disabilities, the rate is much higher in Northern Ireland. Disability rates also show a mirrored pattern along the border, with high rate counties in Ireland aligning with neighbouring high rate counties in Northern Ireland, and the same for areas with lower rates.”
