Issues

Begging to leave

The DUP’s resolve to remove the permanent backstop, a mechanism designed to protect the Good Friday Agreement, has added to the Brexit chaos but there are question marks around whether their confidence and supply deal can survive future twists.

As Theresa May headed off to Brussels to seek an extension to the Brexit process the DUP’s leader Arlene Foster described it as “humiliating” that the UK “are having to go and beg so that we can leave”.

Foster called on the Prime Minister to be “strong” and to show “leadership”, something she says hasn’t been evident in the last couple of months, and yet, the party continue to be the 10 votes that are keeping the Conservative Party in Government.

The confidence and supply deal, agreed between the DUP and the Conservative Party, continues to manoeuvre the ebbs and flows of Brexit policy but following the securing of an extension, there will likely be an assessment of what value it holds in a much different parliamentary climate than when it was first agreed.

For a long time now, the DUP have repeated their insistence that they seek to avoid a hard Brexit but as a second exit date passes, with the threat of no deal looming large, there has been little visible evidence that they are in favour of any alternative. This has put them at odds with the May wing of the Conservative Party.

The party have not taken any action in the House of Commons to mitigate against a no deal scenario. The withdrawal agreement was defeated without DUP support on three separate occasions and the Prime Minister’s last throw of the dice, onboarding Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party to negotiate a withdrawal solution, appears to have pushed the DUP only further into the arms of hard Brexiteers in Westminster.

However, even this relationship has witnessed fractions with Jacob Rees-Mogg signalling that the withdrawal agreement was better than no Brexit, Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesperson, was forced to outline his preference for a delay, rather than a “toxic” deal.

The DUP stand to be both a thorn and an ally to the two separate factions of the Conservative Party during the course of the extension, who over the next year will each be vying for position in a leadership contest, which began the day Article 50 was triggered.

DUP leader Arlene Foster MLA with Diane Dodds MEP and Nigel Dodds MP after meeting Taoiseach Leo Varadkar at the Irish Government residence in Belfast.

That the DUP prioritise the union above all else is evidently clear but something that both factions of the Conservative Party appear to have underestimated. On 29 March, the day the UK was supposed to leave the EU, Nigel Dodds MP stated that he would rather stay in the EU and remain rather than risk Northern Ireland’s position in the union. The statement was a warning shot across the bows of the hard brexiteers who considered falling in behind the withdrawal agreement for fear that Brexit would never happen.

However, the party have also not thrown their support behind any of the alternatives proposed by Parliament and instead doubled down on the request for the removal of the permanent backstop, which they argue, “poses an unacceptable threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom”.

In Northern Ireland, this approach has exasperated many within the business community who recognise the economic detriment a no deal scenario could have on the region. While many of these businesses will welcome an extension over a no deal crash out, both the proximity of a hard exit and a further period of uncertainty, will undoubtedly grate.

The talks between the Prime Minister and the leaders of France and Germany is humiliating and embarrassing for the United Kingdom.

Nigel Dodds MP

Uncertainty will not only surround the economy. Brexit politics at Westminster, which has taken priority over all things Northern Ireland in the past two years, will continue to do so. The DUP’s focus will remain on Westminster and the Assembly’s prospects will remain bleak while parties are polarised in their Brexit outlook.

Added to the mix is that the responsibility for the restoration of any talks lies with a Secretary of State who is struggling to find a vote of confidence from any corner. Repeated blunders from Karen Bradley, the most recent in relation to legacy, have seen calls for her resignation but there is no indication from the UK Government that they plan to remove her.

The prospects for government in Northern Ireland remain bleak.

In the meantime, the DUP will have to think carefully about where they lay their allegiances in Parliament. In their persistence for the perfect deal amongst Brexit chaos, they risk alienating not only their colleagues in Westminster but also those closer to home who desperately seek stability and security.   

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