Mid Ulster

Despite his Derry roots, Martin McGuinness has never seriously been challenged in this constituency by any local competitors. He runs for re-election with a majority larger than his challenger Ian McCrea’s poll; the younger McCrea is also contesting this time round.

Mid Ulster, in its current form, took shape in time for the 1997 general election. It previously took in most of Tyrone under Willie McCrea’s helm. The DUP was dented in 2007 by the UKUP’s Walter Millar, who took 1,210 votes, and Millar this time runs for the TUV. On the far end of the spectrum, Republican Sinn Féin shaved 437 votes from Sinn Féin.

McGuinness has less to lose this time, due to his higher profile and the dissidents’ refusal to even contest Westminster seats. Conversely, his appointment as deputy First Minister and the subsequent power-sharing means the DUP stand to lose more votes from hardliners. McGuinness’ acknowledged IRA past has also not harmed his local popularity.

SDLP and UUP performances held up at roughly the same level between the two polls. This makes the contest among the more predictable in the province. Sandra Overend, Billy Armstrong’s daughter, runs for the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists while SDLP Cookstown councillor Tony Quinn appears for the SDLP.

The internal contest within unionism will prove most interesting, especially between Millar and Ian McCrea. Both have hard-line reputations.

Turnout, meanwhile, is high by regional standards and fits the healthy trend of voting in the west of the province.