Public Affairs

Turbulent times…

Sheila Davidson analyses the impact of a changing political landscape and what it will mean for the Programme for Government.

If we have learned anything over the last 40 years in Northern Ireland it’s that the more things change the more they stay the same.

We are no strangers to seismic shifts in the political landscape and we seem to have taken them all in our stride but the Brexit vote on European membership delivered a shock that no-one anticipated, particularly I suspect, among those who voted to leave.

In the days and months ahead markets will inevitably calm down, the value of sterling will find a new level and the rhetoric of most politicians, business leaders and economic commentators will be to put our best foot forward and talk up our global economic strength.

However, whatever side you were on in the EU Referendum it is absolutely clear that the vacuum created by the leave vote will be filled by political opportunism and we have already had a Scottish Independence referendum put back on the table as well as a different complexion put on a border poll in Ireland.

Who would have thought that the prospect of a united Ireland would so quickly move from being a political ideology rooted in cultural aspiration to a considered economic opportunity for those who previously had no such political imperative?

Make no mistake, the strongest long-term influence will be whatever actually influences jobs, investment and where we see the ultimate opportunity for wealth creation and growth. If the financial centre in London decides to relocate to Dublin as the last English speaking route into Europe, we could see a very different debate in Northern Ireland as we all sport Irish passports and see a one-hour drive to work across the border as the first step in another seismic political shift.

Meanwhile back to day to day life in Northern Ireland and hands up all those who have read the draft Programme for Government and are seriously considering how your company or organisation will contribute to the debate?

We have until July to make a crucial contribution to influencing how our Government will prioritise spending and decide on what can be delivered in an economy under severe strain. The ‘motherhood and apple pie’ document was so light on detail it drove the UUP and SDLP into official opposition.

The DUP and Sinn Féin claim it provides a wide-ranging outline that gives a very real opportunity for us to make a considered democratic contribution to how we will spend the limited funds available.

Some cynics say it is an abdication of responsibility for putting real meat on the bones of how we deliver jobs, infrastructure, health, education and community services. When all the competing interests put in their wish-list by the end of July, the Government still has to decide the priorities. Added to that we will have a long wait for any EU savings dividend to give them any wriggle room in additional spending.

In the meantime, there are real people depending on Government to help them get off the longest NHS waiting lists in our history; victims and survivors of the troubles still waiting on the implementation of promises delayed in the Fresh Start Initiative that recognises their suffering and young people who are looking forward to a school year where we are training teachers we cannot afford to employ, in schools with leaking roofs and second-hand books instead of computers.

As usual we will be dependent on the pragmatic ingenuity of our business community to re-group following the Brexit decision and the consequent market uncertainty. While we all wait for a long drawn out ‘consultation’ on a programme for government they will be working out how we maintain our export markets. They will be working out how we keep our brightest young minds at home and they will be finding ways to work around the procrastination of policy development.

As our wealth generators they are the people we should look to for leadership and we need to listen to their voices as the smallest to the largest employers take decisions today that will affect our economic survival tomorrow.

Meanwhile let’s look forward to the autumn to see what our Government is going to do because after all everything can be postponed for at least another few months here.

The more things change the more they stay the same!

Sheila Davidson is Partner, Emeritus Communications Ltd.

 

Show More
Back to top button