North Down

One to Watch

Sylvia Hermon’s decision to run independently throws the North Down race wide open and also leaves her former party with no MP, for the first time, as this Parliament ends. A comfortable majority of nearly 5,000 saw her first past the post in 2005.

Ian Parsley therefore steps forward as the Ulster Conservative and Unionist candidate and given Hermon’s pro- Labour voting record and Alliance’s liberal links, this is the closest Northern Ireland will get to an English-style constituency contest. The lady is certainly not a Tory, for sure.

It will not be on party allegiance alone that North Down will be won given the personal vote Hermon commands. For example, she polled 16,268 votes last time round while her party registered 6,055 first preferences in the local council’s poll. Using the Assembly elections in 2007 as a mid-point, the DUP vote outweighs that of the UUP by over 3,000 – by 10,469 to 7,280.

The DUP may now decide not to put forward a candidate, thereby ensuring a victory for the Donaghadee woman and a probable poor return for Ian Parsley.

Traditionally a low-turnout constituency, it will likely not change. The nationalist vote increased slightly in 2007, to 1,505.

Stephen Farry’s candidacy, and to a lesser extent the Greens’ Steven Agnew, could prove to be the only minor speed bumps, of which there are many in the area, to Hermon’s safe path. If unionist voters are inclined to turn away from the UCUNF, they may also end up putting an ‘X’ beside Farry or Agnew at the polling station. The combined UUP and Tory vote in 2007 was 8,144 first preferences.