Belfast flag dispute
Peter Cheney summarises the impact of the flags dispute and considers the potential for a solution.
Nine weeks of protests and disorder linked to flag-flying at Belfast City Hall have damaged Northern Ireland’s economy at home and its image abroad. The dispute has demonstrated the difficulty of finding a compromise when national symbols are a cause of division.
The reduction in flag-flying days is an indicator of unionism’s decline within Belfast. The city lost its unionist majority in 1997 and Alliance has held the balance of power since then. In the 2011 elections, the number of nationalist councillors overtook the number of unionist councillors for the first time.
Sinn Féin was therefore in a stronger position to press for its ‘equality or neutrality’ policy i.e. fly the union flag and Irish tricolour together or fly neither. As the flying of both flags was unacceptable to unionists and the Alliance Party, Sinn Féin proposed that the union flag be removed entirely.
The party tabled the motion for the 3 December council meeting. Its proposal was supported by the SDLP although the party would also be prepared to support a new civic flag for Belfast.
Belfast City Council has 51 councillors: 24 nationalists, 21 unionists and six from the Alliance Party. Nationalists were unable to secure a majority and therefore backed the Alliance Party’s counter-motion: flying the union flag on 18 designated days. This was passed by 29 votes to 21.
Alliance’s position reflects a long-standing party policy (in place since 2002) and is based on advice from the College of Arms, the UK’s official advisory body on national symbols.
Most unionists objected strongly, stating that the union flag should continue to fly every day. This is in keeping with city halls in Edinburgh and Cardiff, although both of those councils fly a Scottish or Welsh national flag alongside the union flag.
Loyalists insisted on their right to peaceful protest but many protesters broke the law by obstructing traffic, making threats or acting provocatively.
Four police officers survived murder attempts in December and January: two by dissident republicans in East Belfast and Omagh, one by loyalists outside Naomi Long’s office, and another by unknown assailants in Bangor. The dispute has increased pressure on officers who already face a severe threat of terrorism.
While some of the protests were organised by loyalist paramilitaries, many others were spontaneous or organised through social media. The Ulster People’s Forum has emerged as a loose coalition of protestors. The PUP has increased its profile and recruited new members.
Peter Robinson and Mike Nesbitt called for an end to protests on 6 December after violence against Alliance Party representatives and their offices. However, individual DUP and UUP councillors continued to support protests. An Ipsos Mori poll for BBC Spotlight, conducted in late January, indicated that a large proportion (45 per cent) of unionists wanted the protests to continue.
The Unionist Forum, which first met on 10 January, has been established to provide a political alternative to the protests. The forum has been criticised by nationalists and moderate unionists who prefer a cross-community approach and object to the involvement of paramilitaries.
The loyalist case
Loyalists claim that the flags decision is the latest in a series of concessions that undermines their British identity.
Many loyalist fears are unfounded but some of the protest movement’s arguments are more coherent. Three themes appear to stand out: loyalist areas are losing out, unionist leaders do not represent loyalists, and Sinn Féin has won.
It is true that young loyalist men tend to leave school with fewer qualifications than their Catholic neighbours. Five GCSE passes (between A* and C) is the standard measure of a good education for 16-year olds. In low income families, 18.1 per cent of Protestant boys and 31.3 per cent of Catholic boys received those grades in 2010-2011.
This is a complex and long-running problem. Educationalists and political parties differ over the causes but the debate has centred on academic selection, inner city school closures and jobless families.
Deep poverty, though, affects both communities alike. Of the 10 most deprived wards in Northern Ireland, eight are mainly Catholic and two are mainly Protestant.
The nature of unionist politics is determined by election results. In the last Assembly election, the DUP gained 62.5 per cent of the unionist vote, the UUP gained 27.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent went to independents or other parties. Electoral turnout is low in loyalist areas e.g. 48.7 per cent in inner city East Belfast.
On the constitutional question, the Good Friday Agreement confirmed that Northern Ireland would remain within the UK unless a majority voted otherwise. Surveys regularly show that a majority of voters favour the union.
London 2012, the Queen’s diamond jubilee, and Ulster Covenant centenary were all strong reasons for unionist confidence. Sinn Féin also voted to recognise a British identity in Belfast when it supported designated days.
Tensions are likely to rise again as the marching season gets under way. Flags will also feature in the Mid-Ulster by-election, on 7 March.
No province-wide elections or major centenaries will take place in 2013. The political consequences of the flag dispute will only become clear in the next council elections, expected in June 2014.
Secretary of State Theresa Villiers has insisted that the flags dispute must be resolved by local politicians.
The lack of common ground is one of the major barriers to an agreement and the parties’ views have become more entrenched due to the violence. Local government reform, though, appears to offer an opportunity for an agreement.
Alliance and the Northern Ireland Conservatives have suggested that all councils should adopt designated days. This would show respect for unionist minorities in nationalist-majority areas and could be phased in gradually as the old councils are wound up and the new ones are formed.
The Executive is responsible for tackling the related problems that have been raised by loyalists i.e. educational under-achievement and deprivation. The neighbourhood renewal programme is the Executive’s main urban regeneration programme and will be supplemented by the new Social Investment Fund.
Northern Ireland’s experience has shown that politicians can deliver workable solutions. The story of the peace process, though, also shows that stability and progress also depends on respect for democracy and the rule of law.
