PwC’s Chief Economist, Dr Esmond Birnie, met with Owen McQuade to discuss the prospects for the local economy and what the Executive should do now. Hard questions must be asked about the purpose of government and any new jobs must create wealth.

Looking at the short-term prospects for the local economy, Esmond Birnie sees the province’s economic plight as “the classic glass; half-full or half-empty”.

The recovery is looking mixed but he does not see this as indicating a double-dip recession. “This year as a whole will see positive growth but it will be lacklustre,” Birnie comments. “We expect a weak recovery with Northern Ireland growth likely to hit 0.8 per cent in 2010 and around 1.8 per cent in 2011; that’s well behind likely UK-wide growth of 1.6 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.”

On reflection, he thinks the austere June emergency Budget was unavoidable. “It was essential to sustain good confidence in the debt market,” he surmises, “and that made it a necessary Budget.”

With £6 billion Whitehall cuts already inherited from the last government and Osborne adding a further £17 billion, he foresees the £23 billion reduction in current and capital spending as a major challenge (and once inflation is allowed for the reduction will be even sharper).

As regards the local impact, he says it is not possible to “do a precise readacross, a sort of negative Barnett calculation.” However, based on the £128 million local impact of the coalition’s £6 billion of initial UK-wide cuts, taking a further £17 billion out of public spending could mean the Executive facing an additional £500 million reduction.

“And when you add in other factors like the impact of Civil Service equal pay and the absence of income from water charging, you get up towards £1 billion in cash terms and well over that in ’real’ terms.”

Progressive austerity, in the Treasury’s words, is his predicted result from the effects of the income tax allowance, increase in VAT and tax credit changes.

“However, Northern Ireland’s income distribution is already skewed, with proportionally more on benefits, and a bigger public sector than in the other eleven UK regions. That means that any significant review of public sector spending is likely to hit Northern Ireland more,” he remarks.

“The £64 million question is: ‘Will the private sector compensate for this pain?’”

Birnie explains that some forecasts suggest that up to 10 per cent of UK public sector jobs – 600,000 – will be lost over the next four to five years: “Reading across to Northern Ireland that equates to 22,500 jobs, or 4,000 to 5,000 jobs a year. Countering that equates to 1 per cent growth in private sector employment each year, not unreachable but with the world economy still depressed, this would be a major challenge.”

In the anxiety over jobs, it is also “crucially important” that the Executive does not forget the Programme for Government’s (PfG) targets on GVA (gross value added), which has not grown alongside increases in employment.

The PfG aimed to attract 6,500 new jobs from inward investment, with those jobs increasing the value-added in their particular sector. Commercial exploitation of R&D was also pledged, to promote higher value-added economic activity and Invest NI was tasked with promoting value-added growth projects from locally-owned companies.

“Over the last 10 to 12 years the Northern Ireland economy has had a credible growth in employment of 1.5 per cent, or 12,000 people, per annum, but we didn’t combine this growth [with] wealth creation”.

Growth in employment, he says, was mostly through the expansion of retail and call centres. “While we created employment, we weren’t increasing the average GVA,” he states. “For every job we lost, we created a new job that was actually worth less.”

This need to balance job creation with wealth creation is therefore a “real dilemma” for policy-makers and politicians.

Reshaping the economy

A key objective of June’s emergency Budget was to reshape the UK economy, with growth coming from increased exports and investment, rather than consumer and government spending. Birnie sees this as being in the “right direction”.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s medium-term forecast indicates a slow modest recovery up to 2 per cent underpinned by investment and exportled growth. However, the devaluation in exchange rate, by a quarter, has not so far translated into much growth of exports from either the UK or Northern Ireland.

“There is a view that there is a lag of several years,” he comments. “Another, more pessimistic, view is that the UK has lost its core manufacturing capacity and can’t expand. Manufacturing is now based in niche markets and not on volume.”

Investment by industry has been dependent on bank lending “and we know the problems there,” he adds.

Anticipating the autumn spending review, Birnie observes: “Obviously this is a challenge, but it is also an opportunity.”

Government, in his view, should start with a blank sheet of paper, asking the difficult questions such as: “What is government for? Are there things better delivered by the private sector? Are there things that could be shifted from central to local government? Is there a bigger role for NGOs?” He mentions that the Scottish Government’s review of spending took such an approach and asked such fundamental questions.

Corporation tax

Birnie has a mixed view of the prospect of a lower corporation tax regime for Northern Ireland. He explains that if Northern Ireland had lower corporation tax, the Executive would have to pay a similar amount, i.e. £150-200 million, from the spending block to be compliant with the Azores ruling regarding European law.

He notes that complying with the Azores ruling would offer the Executive a wider range of tax-raising powers than just control of corporation tax. “The experience from RoI is that it is better to use tax-varying powers in certain areas,” he remarks.

“There is fixation on headline tax rate. Even if we got it down to 12.5 per cent, many countries have lower rates, and then it becomes a race to the bottom and a futile battle.”

As an alternative, he proposes: “Why not create a tailored package of tax incentives for R&D and IP [intellectual property]?” Tax breaks could be used to encourage and incentivise R&D and its commercialisation, which in turn would raise GVA in a way that low corporation tax wouldn’t.

The economic indicators, meanwhile, show the world economy in recovery mode, with 3.0 per cent annual growth, but the drivers of growth have shifted, with a higher proportion coming from the socalled BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, particularly China. “The Chinese economy has as high a proportion of GDP growth as the US. The US is still the biggest economy by far but China is growing at 10 per cent each year,” he points out. “This has implications for exporters to look beyond the Eurozone. India was the second largest source of inward investment after the US during 2002-07.”

Birnie also notes the strong emphasis placed by the Coalition Government on a new, multi-polar view of the world economy, with ministers seeking to forge special relationships with India and China, and looking beyond the Eurozone and US.

PwC has already made a comprehensive submission to the Chancellor in respect of options for the Comprehensive Spending Review and has copied its proposals to Finance Minister, Sammy Wilson. Birnie says that by taking the ‘clean sheet of paper’ approach to spending, it could be possible to make a substantial dent in the likely level of cuts the Executive might expect over the next CSR period.

“That would deliver fundamental change, a new change from the ground upwards whereby we would try and justify all programmes,” he says in conclusion.

Two further sets of questions, though, must be answered. “Government should ask how effectively they are delivering services and if the private or voluntary sectors could deliver them more efficiently. Another aspect is that they would ask citizens: How much do you value those programmes?”

Published in draft form by OFMDFM on 27 July, it is the first community relations strategy drawn up by a power-sharing government. However, the long delay in its production and the very public differences of opinion in autumn 2008, when the DUP and Sinn Féin published rival drafts, suggest that it may not achieve all its aims.

Jointly launching the document, Peter Robinson reflected that “we have all come a long way in the past decade” and it was important to “now build on the good work that has already been achieved”.

Martin McGuinness referred to recent “events within our community”, presumably the rioting in Ardoyne and elsewhere, which emphasised the importance of “dialogue, agreement and joint working.” All of society needed to tackle the problems involved, especially hate crime, not government alone.

Unlike Robinson, McGuinness frequently referred to equality, which illustrates the major difference between the DUP and Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin claims that inequality between nationalists and unionists caused the Troubles and that a ‘levelling out’ between the two blocks is still needed. According to the DUP, the Troubles themselves are the main cause as community relations deteriorated and therefore those relations have to be improved. The parties’ views reflect wider thinking in both communities.

The language of the 77-page document is cautious, tending to speak of issues to address rather than problems to solve.

CSI is the first of a “family of policies” seeking to tackle prejudice and hate. The others will promote “equality, fairness, rights, respect and responsibility” for all the groups mentioned in section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act.

Administration

A ‘panel for cohesion, sharing and integration’ would be established and led by the OFMDFM ministers. This would monitor how the CSI programme is implemented and also hold government to account on “equality, fairness, inclusion and good relations”.

Panel members will recommend specific areas for action by ministers. Fourteen themes are identified.

Short-term suggestions include developing “shared space”, better crisis intervention when violence and hate crime happens, and earlier action to tackle tensions at interfaces. In the medium term, best practice could be shared wherever it is needed and the new parades framework could further ease tensions.

Dealing with flags, murals, bonfires and interfaces would take place only in the long-term. Encouraging shared neighbourhoods is also in this category, as well as “reducing and eventually eliminating” segregated services.

A separate advisory panel or arm’s length body would provide expert advice and guidance. The Community Relations Council could fulfil this role but some other options see it being abolished. A funders’ group is also envisaged, to make the best use of available money.

Councils are important for improving good relations as they are close to the people they service. Existing good relations work will continue and they will be consulted on the criteria for new funding projects.

Extensive use is made of Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey statistics.

The desired changes in society are summarised under two general headings: people and places.

People

The vast majority of people want to work in shared workplaces (92 per cent) and a smaller majority prefer mixed religion schools (62 per cent).

Robust anti-discrimination and equality legislation is already in place. Private sector employers are encouraged to make their workplaces “diverse, welcoming and shared environments.”

In education, the role of integrated sector schools is recognised, although the document does not say that these account for just 61 of Northern Ireland’s 1,223 schools.

“Poverty and disadvantage” is a constant factor in most interface areas and the ministers are determined that “no community is left behind”. Tensions can still deter foreign investment.

Health and leisure services should not be duplicated, especially due to the financial pressure. People need to feel safe enough to use services outside their own neighbourhood. No similar commitment is made for schools.

Places

Mixed religion neighbourhoods are consistently popular: 80 per cent of people would like to live in one. The DSD is considering changes to the common selection scheme for social housing and in the meantime, each new social housing scheme is being screened for its “shared potential”. The Shared Neighbourhood Scheme is being piloted in 30 estates across the province.

Not enough is being done to tackle sectarian symbols, according to 88 per cent of respondents. OFMDFM says it is still committed to “working with people in the community” to remove paramilitary flags and murals, and racist and sectarian graffiti. The flags protocol, which states how offensive flags should be removed, will be reviewed after CSI is finalised.

All public spaces should be shared and welcoming, it states. This does not mean “neutralising” these areas but creating a “good and harmonious environment” where no-one feels threatened. This also means ending the “unnecessary duplication of services”.

One public service is already designed in a shared way. DCAL makes sure that libraries are built in places that can reach both communities.

Youth

As in the past, some young people make “flawed judgements” and become involved in disorder and violence. Positive alternatives are needed.

The Department of Justice will develop a long-term plan to stop young people taking part in hate crime. Meanwhile, the Department of Education is preparing a new ‘community relations, equality and diversity in education’ policy. Schools are also encouraged to see their premises as places for the whole community to use.

More research into the needs of NEETs (i.e. young people not in education, employment or training) is also being carried out by DEL.

Culture

All sections of the community should “feel comfortable expressing and sharing their cultural identity” but those sections need to understand others’ cultures in a better way. This should help to prevent attacks on GAA and Orange halls.

Community festivals are praised for helping to reduce tensions over the summer months. Culture is also closely connected to tourism, where there is “considerable scope” for more jobs and attractions. Tensions deterred visitors and they had to be reassured that Northern Ireland was a “safe and welcoming place for all”.

Separately, OFMDFM has drafted the Public, Assemblies, Parades and Protests Bill, which aims to tackle parading problems at a local level. DCAL’s regional and minority languages strategy will also focus on a shared future, when it is published.

Security

Peace walls are the most visible sign of division. Although their removal is described as a key government priority, any solution will be slow. Local communities must be “involved, consulted and supported”. Safety and security are vital.

Around a quarter of Protestants and Catholics say they would avoid working in an area dominated by the other community. PSNI statistics also show that there were 245 more sectarian incidents and 45 more racist incidents in 2009-2010 than in the previous year.

It is up to local communities to remove graffiti and paramilitary symbols, the document says. The forthcoming Justice Bill will, though, legislate against sectarian behaviour at sports grounds. Crime reduction partnerships, when introduced, will be required to consider good relations.

Cohesion

A cohesive community refers to how new arrivals to Northern Ireland fit into its society. Zero tolerance for racism or hate crime is emphasised.

As the Programme for Government stated, the arrival of new migrants was changing society and could help to encourage mixing. CSI re-affirms the outgoing racial equality strategy and OFMDFM is “open to proposals” about how it can be strengthened.

Immigration, of course, influences a society’s ethnic mix and the Executive will lobby the UK Government for an immigration policy that works for Northern Ireland and “takes full account of our different skills, needs and concerns.”

In particular, ministers want to ensure that destitute immigrants received proper welfare support, as they sometimes “slip through the safety net”. Legislation may be needed in Parliament.

Reaction

Alliance had entered the Executive on the condition that progress would be made on a shared future. Stephen Farry welcomed the publication but also pointed out weaknesses. He hopes for improvements after the consultation takes place.

“Addressing the continued deep divisions in Northern Ireland through building a shared future is the biggest challenge facing this society,” he warned. The document was “deficient and flawed” in its lack of clarity and detail, including on the cost of division and how it would be delivered.

The DUP’s official comment was made through Peter Robinson’s statement.

Sinn Féin’s Martina Anderson was fiercely critical of “unelected, unnecessary and ineffective good relations quangos” and hoped to see them abolished: “Sectarianism and intolerance are still rife in our society so I have to ask just what exactly have these organisations delivered?”

Anderson saw equality as “the foundation of good relations”, adding that the publication marked “the beginning of a dialogue about the type of society we would like to see.”

OFMDFM Committee Chairman Danny Kennedy cautioned that, as it stood, the document “contains some positive sound bites” but was unlikely to deliver a shared future: “Whilst I recognise that bringing about a shared future should be an organic process, without some goals it will be extremely difficult to make or measure progress.”

Speaking for his party, Kennedy was not convinced that the DUP and Sinn Féin had moved beyond the “separate but equal” position. His preference was “tolerant and pluralist”, like most of the UK.

The SDLP thinks the document does little to deal with sectarianism. Spokesman Conall McDevitt commented that this needed to be seen as the “real enemy” with government leading the fight against it.

Steven Agnew, for the Greens, found it “light on detail”, containing “lots of visions and little of substance.” Gay rights groups have criticised the lack of detail on their calls for equality but it promises a separate sexual orientation strategy.

The public consultation runs to 29 October. Ten public meetings will be held in September and responses can be made in writing to OFMDFM. The schedule allows little time to finalise the strategy before the Christmas recess but it would need to be agreed before the Assembly elections next May.

CSI is one of the most important consultations ever undertaken in Northern Ireland, according to the Community Relations Council, which will be making a detailed response.

Chief Executive Duncan Morrow felt it needed to be “much more substantial” and described a “shared and reconciled society” as the best way forward for Northern Ireland.

The UK deficit

The combination of an underlying structural deficit plus the impact of actions to alleviate the financial crisis and the recession has brought about a serious deterioration in the UK’s fiscal position. By the spring of this year annual net UK public sector borrowing (the deficit) was projected to exceed 11 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) while the underlying stock of debt was rising sharply towards a peak of almost 75 per cent of GDP or £1.4 trillion in 2014-2015.

The cost of servicing this debt would grow very rapidly if interest rates began to increase or the markets imposed a risk premium on UK borrowing. Faced with these threats a credible debt consolidation plan for the UK was needed urgently.

The Labour Government’s Budget 2010 in March 2010 aimed for a fiscal consolidation of £73 billion by 2014-2015. The Coalition Government’s emergency budget in June 2010 went much further adding an additional £40 billion of tightening by 2014-2015 and pushing total consolidation to £128 billion by 2015-2016. Table 1 shows how the fiscal consolidation has evolved.

Of the £128 billion of consolidation planned for 2015-2016, some £99 billion is expected to come from spending cuts and the rest from tax increases. The spending cuts include £11 billion of a contribution from the welfare budget.

Since the Coalition has pledged to maintain real spending on health and increase spending on overseas aid, the overall spending cuts imply real reductions of 25 per cent or more for other services.

The precise implications for Northern Ireland of these cuts in Whitehall departments will not be known until the spending review in October. However, since cuts in comparable English spending departments carry over to Northern Ireland via the Barnett formula, some rough estimates can be made. The formula gives Northern Ireland (and Scotland and Wales) a population share of changes in comparable English spending.

With health protected, this implies cuts of between 8-10 per cent in real terms for current expenditure in Northern Ireland by 2014-2015 and probably 25 per cent or more in capital expenditure. Thus by 2014-2015 the baseline for the public expenditure funded by the UK Exchequer and assigned to the Northern Ireland Executive (the so called assigned DEL)* could be down by £1.5 billion compared with its current figure**.

* DEL = departmental expenditure limit
** This is entirely consistent with estimates of a cut of £4.8 billion for Scottish public expenditure made by the Scottish Government over the same period.

Table 1: UK fiscal consolidation (£ billion)

Meanwhile back home

The assigned DEL is over 90 per cent of the Executive’s budget but there are other sources of income. Table 2 sets out what the Executive plans to spend in 2010- 2011 and how it is financed.

It is clear that losing over £1 billion of departmental spending would be a huge challenge for the Executive but unfortunately the pain doesn’t end there. In its short life the present Executive has managed to rack up some substantial bills for which there is no regular source of finance.

Some of these, such as free transport for the elderly and free prescriptions, have a modest though growing cost. Others, such as expenditure on water and sewerage (about £200 million per year), and freezing the regional rates have a much higher price tag.

Other commitments such as the Civil Service equal pay claim (£150 million) and possible support for the Presbyterian Mutual savers also represent an unfunded claim on resources. Taken alongside a decline in capital receipts from a depressed market these and other pressures forced a £367 million readjustment in 2010-2011 and the initial emergency UK in-year budget adjustment of £6 billion left the Executive with a further £128 million of cuts to find now or defer until next year.

Finally we should not overlook the budget significance of the transfer of policing and justice powers to the Executive. Although a baseline of £1.2 billion and a one-off package worth some £850 million transferred with this function it too will face cuts from the consolidation announced in the June 2010 emergency Budget. Past experience shows that any deterioration in the security situation tends to push law and order spending towards the top of the priority list, displacing other programmes in the process.

Table 2: Northern Ireland Budget 2010-2011 (£ million)

What can be done?

Facing cuts in the Executive’s budget which may take a decade or more to recover to its present level requires an urgent examination of what can be done to offset this loss. This section looks briefly at the options for self-help, some obvious and others more radical.

(a) Ending protection for spending

Every Minister will wish to have their expenditure protected in times of cut backs but there is no logical justification for blanket protection. All programmes have the potential to make savings and no area of spending should be immune from scrutiny. The local budget is dominated by health and education spending and it is simply not possible to absorb cuts of the magnitude envisaged while protecting these large programmes.

(b) Unfunded commitments

If the Executive is paying for measures that have no support through the Barnett formula then these should be examined urgently since the true cost is lower levels of service in other areas. Finding an alternative funding mechanism for the Water Service rather relying on public expenditure, for example, would release up to £200 million per year for other services.

(c) Universality of provision

There has been a growing trend to provide some services on a universal basis and at no user cost. Prescriptions are one example. This form of provision is wasteful and needs to be re-thought.

(d) Efficiency savings

Efficiency savings can make limited resources go further. However, having already found over £700 million of savings in the past three years there must be no illusion that efficiency savings alone can come near to closing the funding gap that now looms.

(e) Pay, employment and pensions

Public sector pay counts directly for half of public expenditure and much of the rest indirectly supports jobs so pay restraint is a legitimate issue for debate when the alternative is large scale loss of jobs.

Public sector pay in areas of devolved responsibility rests with the Executive but within the controls set by HM Treasury so in principle a policy of freezing or even cutting pay (as has happened in the Republic of Ireland) is possible.

However, this is a complex area and the scope for local action may be constrained by legal commitments. Adopting regional pay bargaining would mean disengaging from the national pay bodies and setting up new arrangements. It is by no means a quick fix for tackling the public expenditure crisis.

(f) Rationalisation of administration

Northern Ireland has a complex mix of administrative structures that are in urgent need of rationalisation to reduce duplication and waste. Unfortunately the main vehicles for delivering these changes such as the Review of Public Administration and the Education and Skills Authority have stalled because of political differences.

The prize is still there, however, including new rationalisations such as concentrating public sector research organisations that are scattered across departments into a new unified structure. In the face of a major public expenditure crisis it makes sense to re-start the process of rationalisation as soon as possible.

(g) The capital programme

Northern Ireland has embarked upon an ambitious investment strategy with a planned spend of £18 billion over ten years. However, this strategy was always conditional on funding being available and the depressed state of the market for asset sales and the very large reduction in conventional capital funds over the next four years means that the original strategy is unsustainable.

In addition, Northern Ireland has been a heavy user of the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) to deliver capital projects. In 2010-2011, over £940 million worth of deals had either been signed or were at preferred bidder stage. This is 11 per cent of the UK total for a region with 3 per cent of the UK population. Since the annual unitary payments on all of these deals come out of current expenditure which is set to contract sharply, PFI will become an increasingly onerous burden.

In view of the change in circumstances since it was originally conceived, a review of the Investment Strategy is clearly indicated with a view to adopting a more modest and sustainable programme.

(h) Raising local revenue

The principal revenue raising vehicle available to the Executive is the regional rate. However, the domestic rate has been frozen in money terms for three years so revenue from that source is not even keeping pace with inflation. The non-domestic rate has been frozen in real terms and a raft of reliefs or giveaways have undermined the tax base. As public services face unprecedented pressures, all of these revenue limiting measures will come under critical scrutiny.

Beyond the rates the Executive has little room to manoeuvre in generating additional revenue. Some imaginative ideas involving manipulating the MoT system and imposing a text levy on mobile phone operators have been floated but they need much further thought before any revenue would be forthcoming.

It is difficult not to conclude from this brief review that the Executive has relatively few means in the short term to offset the pain of cuts in its budget. Perhaps it is time to consider if there is another way to tackle the problem through a deal with the Coalition Government.

Can a deal be done?

A straightforward plea to be excused the forthcoming cuts will be most unlikely to succeed. There are many areas of the UK that are as poor if not poorer than Northern Ireland so we are not in that sense a unique case.

However, there are two factors that might be woven into a compelling argument for distinct treatment. The first of these is the weakness of the private sector. While the region will take a 3 per cent population share of cuts the local private sector accounts for probably less than 2 per cent of UK output, which is well down the regional scale. Thus the ability of the private sector to expand rapidly to take up the slack from public sector cuts is very problematic unless it gets a helping hand.

This is where the second part of the argument comes in. Both the Secretary of State and the Prime Minister have declared that they wish to see Northern Ireland turn into an ‘enterprise zone’ but so far no tangible ideas beyond the possibility of a reduced rate of corporation tax have emerged to give effect to this desire.

The outline of a deal might therefore be as follows:

• The budget cuts for Northern Ireland to be limited to 2 per cent (the output share) rather than 3 per cent (the Barnett share) of cuts in comparable English programmes;
• The savings (perhaps £500 million per year by 2014-2015) to be held in a ring-fenced pot to support new measures to promote enterprise and private sector growth in the region. The Executive would accept the loss of autonomy over this money so that there would be no leakage back to supporting social programmes. This would be very similar to the arrangements put in place for financing the European Union Peace and Reconciliation Programme.
• A partnership arrangement between the Secretary of State and the Executive to oversee the disbursement of funds from the new fund.

Victor Hewitt is Director of the Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland.

A smaller Assembly is on the way due to plans for fewer constituencies. Political reasons in Britain are driving the change, to take effect after the next general election. MLAs and MPs share the same areas.

Conservatives have long complained that many Labour seats are too small and easily won. Some of the smallest seats, by electorate, are clustered in the Welsh valleys, inner city London and Merseyside. These were set up during the Industrial Revolution to represent growing cities and mining areas, but their populations have since declined.

Northern Ireland’s number of seats was 13 in 1922, then 12 from 1950, before going up to 17 in 1983 and 18 in 1997. At present, the Commons has 650 MPs, split as follows:

The coalition’s Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill proposes a cut to 600 constituencies; its second reading is on 6 September. Proportionally by population, that number would be shared out as follows:

This analysis uses rounded numbers, making up a total of 599. However, Scotland is guaranteed two small seats, to cover the remote Western Isles, and Orkney and Shetland. If that tally went up to 52, Northern Ireland could be squeezed down to 16 or 15.

Sir Reg Empey has predicted that any reduction may see a Belfast constituency abolished, due to their smaller size. Each one currently has 52,000 to 53,000 voters. At the May general election, the smallest in Northern Ireland was Belfast South (52,218) with Antrim North being the largest (73,938).

Until now, the ‘cut the Assembly’ debate has focused on the number of seats per constituency, assuming that the number of constituencies stays at 18, as shown below:

Fewer seats will even out differences in population and save some money; the standard MLA’s salary is £43,101 while MPs earn £65,738. However, representation would be less local with each member expected to do more constituency work. Smaller parties may lose out.

Dropping the number of constituencies, though, means a gentler decrease. Assuming six MLAs per seat, this trend appears:

The DUP supports keeping 18 constituencies but having three or four MLAs per seat. Ulster Unionists and Alliance also support a smaller Assembly. The UUP sees a constituency cut as “inevitable” and seeks a “fair and equitable” outcome.

Sinn Féin is “not opposed” to looking at a constituency cut but says the Assembly’s large size is necessary to ensure the “broadest spectrum” of opinion. The SDLP has no set figures in mind but would examine proposals for “fairness, balance and equality of representation.”

The Greens, meanwhile, are calling for an independent commission to decide the number of constituencies and MLAs, as the review of local government showed that “party political interests can interfere with providing the best possible public service.”

The eventual end to the Barnett formula and a strong precedent for tax-raising powers will be the main results of the Coalition Government’s plans to give Scotland more autonomy. A think tank on Scottish devolution, the Calman Commission, will see its recommendations put into law over the next year.

In future, Northern Ireland would receive grant funding from Westminster only because of its needs, which are yet to be assessed. Extra powers for Holyrood, over taxes and elections, could also lead to calls for Stormont to follow suit.

Scotland has the most established devolved system in the UK and is usually seen as more advanced than Northern Ireland. In particular, the Scottish Parliament can vary the basic income tax rate by 3 per cent, and justice has been devolved since the start.

It is also nearly three times larger than Northern Ireland in population (5.2 million to 1.8 million) and in its set budget (£28.9 million to £11 billion).

Powers

The Northern Ireland Assembly, though, controls some policy areas which Scotland does not.

Some of these differences are down to practical reasons e.g. to ensure the same safety standards on all of Great Britain’s roads. Strategically, the UK Government did not want to lose its North Sea oil revenues. The province is also traditionally seen as a ‘place apart’ which needs its own separate laws and services.

The Scottish independence debate (agendaNi issue 33, p.112-114) is now effectively suspended due to the more pressing financial problems. In response, the pro-union parties – i.e. Labour, the Lib Dems and Tories – had set up a commission led by Sir Kenneth Calman, a former chief medical officer, to look at how devolution could be improved.

This commission started work in April 2008 and reported in June 2009, with an enthusiastic welcome from its backers. It recommended that the Scottish Parliament should have power over:

• Administering its own elections;
• Funding animal health policy;
• Regulating airguns; and
• Setting drink drive limits and speed limits;

In general, though, the Scottish split between devolved and reserved powers was “well-drawn at present”. More radical proposals to devolve energy and drug laws were rejected.

Respect

Calman’s main thrust was better cooperation between the devolved and Westminster levels of government. “Mutual respect” should be the guiding principle.

To this end, he called on the Scottish Secretary to outline the Queen’s Speech to MSPs, which Michael Moore did on 17 June. David Cameron, who paid a visit on 14 May, has also offered to visit Holyrood annually in keeping with his manifesto.

The UK Parliament, the commission said, should also be free to discuss devolved matters and hold a regular “state of Scotland” debate. A joint liaison committee could also be set up.

MSPs (and MLAs) are often asked to vote on legislative consent motions, so that one of the UK Parliament’s Bills can extend to their region. However, the detail of the Bill sometimes changes significantly after that motion is agreed. More detailed communication was needed on these changes.

The Joint Ministerial Committee should include formal meetings between finance ministers from all parts of the UK. The JMC also needed to be more open, publishing its agendas and an annual report. In Europe, Scottish ministers should be included in UK delegations when devolved matters are discussed.

Finance

His main findings on finance were to replace the Barnett formula with a needsbased alternative, and allowing the Scottish Parliament to raise more of its own funds. The overall aim is to improve that Parliament’s financial accountability, rather than spending money raised by others.

Current tax-varying powers could add or subtract up to £1 billion from the Scottish budget; this has never been tested.

In the commission’s view, the UK Government should cut all Scottish income tax rates, and the block grant, by 10 per cent and allow MSPs to set their own rate. The resulting fiscal gap could then be filled or even exceeded, resulting in “over a third” of devolved current spending being funded within Scotland.

Four other taxes would also be subject to the same principle:

• Aggregates levy;
• Air passenger duty.
• Landfill tax; and
• Stamp duty on property transactions.

Grant funding from Westminster would continue, to ensure proper welfare services for all UK citizens e.g. the NHS, social security. However, grant money could only be justified according to need, and a UK-wide assessment of that would be required.

Until this assessment was carried out, the Barnett formula could continue although it would have to be adapted to allow for any devolved taxes.

At present, the Scottish Parliament can borrow money from the Treasury to fill short-term gaps in its cash flow. More borrowing powers are recommended, to fund capital spending projects. Northern Ireland already has greater borrowing powers – up to £200 million per annum.

Some variations in VAT and fuel duty could be considered when the new system has settled down. Devolved taxes would still be collected by HM Revenue and Customs.

Both regions’ budgets are comparable, although Northern Ireland has its own social security fund. The Scottish Government has chosen to defer its share of spending cuts (initially £332 million) to 2011-2012.

Short of independence, the SNP wants full fiscal autonomy with all Scottish revenues raised in Scotland. A remittance would then be sent to the Treasury to pay for UK-wide services. This has been done before in Northern Ireland, as the old Stormont Government paid for ‘imperial services’ (e.g. farm subsidies). However, most taxes were still collected by the UK Government.

Relevance

Strongly backed by the Coalition Government, the Calman report is to be implemented through a new Scotland Bill, which is now being drafted. This is due to be published in the autumn and Parliament returns from its summer recess on 6 September.

Any fiscal changes would automatically affect Scotland’s tax-payers and their families, including around 33,000 people from Northern Ireland who live there. Increased pressure for tax devolution in Northern Ireland can also be expected, although the Treasury is only researching the potential for corporation tax.

Calman’s plans would also give Scotland an edge over Northern Ireland in running its own devolved elections. Both regions go to the polls on 5 May 2011.

All of his ideas on co-operation could, in theory, be copied in Northern Ireland, although they would need the Assembly’s backing.

There are no plans to make the devolution settlements consistent. Indeed, the UK Government admits and accepts that devolution is ‘asymmetrical’ and therefore different in each country. Northern Ireland has not had a similar review of its settlement; Stormont only received its full powers in April 2010 when justice was transferred.

Barnett would continue until a replacement is found. The UK-wide needs assessment would, crucially, then decide whether Northern Ireland is underfunded or over-funded. The province would no longer be guaranteed funding as it was in the past.

“We only have 10 years to get North/South right” otherwise Ireland will be “by-passed” by the rest of the world.

That’s according to reports given to Social Development Minister Alex Attwood, who sees all-island working as central to his remit. Four weeks into the new position, the former Policing Board member is aware of the time constraints facing him on all fronts.

“If we don’t pull together and integrate how this island [organises] its business, planning, education, health service and spatial strategies, we are going to lose out,” Attwood states.

Latin America, in particular Brazil, is set to follow China as the world’s new emerging market, and Ireland will not be able to compete unless it quickly “positions itself around research and development and innovation.”

After talking to business leaders in Northern Ireland and the Republic, and senior officials in the Department of the Taoiseach, Attwood became aware that the analysis that time is running out is widely regarded as being accurate. “If we don’t get it right Dublin will suffer, but Belfast will suffer even more,” he adds.

While the SDLP advocates a united Ireland, Attwood – whose family comes from Cork, and refers to himself as “a first generation Northerner” – insists that “this is not a party political thing for me. It’s a sign that North/South is a self-evident truth and that it makes sense to save money and get better services.”

He points to a report containing 37 recommendations for a North/South health service which was never published because “people might think it’s a hot potato.” Attwood believes that “if we don’t handle these hot potatoes, everyone’s going to lose out.”

This is Attwood’s first stint as a Minister. His impressions so far are that “it’s more difficult that you can imagine.”

“You have to keep your concentration levels up all the time because you are receiving questions from departmental officials, journalists, Assembly members and the public, plus I have a very busy diary and an enormous amount of paper work,” he remarks.

Technically social development relates to housing, benefits and urban regeneration, but a “less dry” definition, according to Attwood is: “it is the department that helps the hundreds and thousands of people who rely on it to get from one end of the day to the other, to have a decent house, to take care of their kids and to make sure that a difficult situation isn’t made more difficult.”

Shared services

Northern Ireland must act now to “break free from the past” by providing shared rather than duplicated services and ending segregated housing, Attwood contends. With only 42 weeks to leave an “imprint” on the department, he is determined to fulfil Margaret Ritchie’s commitments, while putting his “own shape” on things.

Sixteen neighbourhoods have already publicly declared their preference to become shared neighbourhoods and Attwood will soon announce another 14, to make up the figure of 30 that was previously announced by Ritchie. From now on, Attwood will proof all housing and regeneration strategies against shared future standards.

In relation to the ‘peace walls’, the most obvious sign of segregation in Belfast, Attwood believes that while the feelings and the hurt within various communities must be considered, “we must also push, just like we did with policing, to get society to a much better place.”

Housing

Attwood praises the building of 1,838 new social and affordable houses. He aims to authorize a further 2,000 this year. “I will die in a ditch to get that number,” he claims.

Housing need is still a major problem in the province, Attwood has come to realise. After Edwin Poots was called to a house on Battenburg Street on the Upper Shankill, Attwood has asked for a briefing about the area and intends to make a private visit.

“He [Poots] said the smell of damp lingered with him for hours after he left,” Attwood explains.

In addition, Attwood was visited in his Andersonstown Road constituency office by an 83 year-old woman who has been living in her private rented house for 75 years, using an outdoor toilet.

“When she expressed an interest in buying that house, it wasn’t offered to her properly; the estate agent’s wife bought it. Her housing conditions are appalling but in my view that wasn’t handled right. She was denied that chance to buy it,” he revealed.

“That’s the sort of intolerable stuff that’s happening in our city.”

The Housing Commission’s report was food for thought for the Minister who says: “If there are ways in which we can manage our stock better, get the Housing Executive to work better, and find ways of accessing finance without putting in jeopardy the jewel of the Housing Executive stock, then we will consider all that.

“I think the big point in the Housing Commission report is that housing should be on a secure financial basis, and should be government-funded. We can’t have a hand-to-mouth existence where on a year-to-year basis we don’t know what budget we are getting.”

Regeneration

Urban regeneration is a brighter area, according to Attwood.

“If you go into city centre at the moment there are building works going on and if you walk 20 yards to Anne Street you will see what urban regeneration means.”

The consequence of this development, he contends, is that more private businesses will open up, circulating money and stimulating economic regeneration.

“This is government money that gets huge returns, disproportionate to the money you put in,” he states.

He points out that if the department does not get sufficient funding, projects such as the networking centre at Templemore Avenue “that Peter Robinson, Robin Newton and Sammy Wilson have publicly, and quite rightly endorsed” will not go ahead.

This project is backed by Attwood because it could stabilise that area of lower east Belfast which is only a “few feet” away from a peace line. He attended a breakfast in support of the venture with loyalists Billy Hutchinson and Sammy Douglas because he wanted to voice the message that “there is a lot of good things going on within unionism and unionist communities.”

“If you can regenerate [the Templemore school building], you can take the tensions from that area and open up the area in a cross-community way,” Attwood states.

“That unit would be an anchor for potential businesses, services and voluntary groups. That’s a no-brainer as far as I’m concerned.”

Social security

Northern Ireland is the only devolved region with responsibility for paying out social security, although its policy mirrors that in Great Britain. Attwood is concerned about the “hints of old Tory attitudes” which he sees “in the guise of a new coalition government.”

He wrote to the new Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith requesting a meeting to discuss the region’s unique position.

In that letter, Attwood referred to the legacy of unemployment and lack of education permeating some families and communities in the region, the fact that local democracy is “still tender” and the dissident threat.

When asked if he thinks these pressures will be taken on board by Duncan Smith, Attwood replied: “I will see when I meet him. He will offer sympathy, but whether he will offer support remains to be seen.”

Some parties want Northern Ireland to have its own fiscal powers but Attwood warns that this would not necessarily be a solution to relying on a budget from the UK Government.

“£3 billion comes across the water just for social security. That’s the scale of what we are talking about. If we were to have our own fiscal powers, would we be able to continue that?”

Even the technicalities of paying the benefits, according to Attwood, would be a huge cost to the province because an expensive social security computer system, based in England, is currently used.

“I want to have a discussion about parity but let’s have our eyes wide open and look for every opportunity to have more fiscal independence around corporation tax and the social fund [the grant or interest-free loan given to those who can’t access this from a bank],” he remarks. He adds that he wants to be “radical but not reckless.”

“If a society can’t be guaranteed a safe and decent home, people will ask bigger questions about devolution,” he warns.

Devolution

Attwood says that he has spent the first few weeks getting into government, but the rest of his term will be spent getting into power.

To do this he, and the rest of the Northern Ireland Executive, have many walls to climb.

“If we have been able to move the peace, the politics and the police to where it is today, we now have to move that politics to the next phase and do the same transformation.”

Because the world looks to Northern Ireland as an example “we now have to show the rest of the world, and ourselves, that we can lead further, and that means a shared future,” Attwood insists.

A line from TE Lawrence’s ‘Seven Pillars of Wisdom’ echoes some elements of the Executive, according to Attwood.

He quotes: “When a new world dawns, the old men came out again and took our victory to re-make the likeness of the former world they knew … We stammered that we had worked for a new heaven and a new earth, and they thanked us kindly and made their peace.”

Attwood explains that since the Good Friday Agreement, there are some “old men”, who have been in the Civil Service for a long time and are “used to the old order.” He wants them to know that there is a new world order that must be used by all politicians to get into power to “redeem the powerless.”

Party political in-fighting has been hampering the Executive from delivering effective policies, Attwood believes. When money becomes tight, parties “have a tendency to walk off the pitch” and in advance of the Assembly elections in May next year, Attwood is worried that there is a danger that politicians will get “caught up emotionally in who has biggest party and who will be First Minister.”

He warns: “If our politics is based on who has more power around the Executive table or who wants to be king of the castle, we won’t get over these walls.”

He also points to the “short-of-the-mark” shared future strategy, the failed local government reform and the “limited” response to the recession, claiming: “People value devolution but they doubt what it delivers. There has been a lot of politics and little results.”

Moving forward, Attwood urges his Executive colleagues to take the opportunities “to shape devolution in a much better way” and to “bring about the levels of change needed to bring people into a shared future.”

“That’s what I mean about going into power, not just government,” he concludes.

Profile: Alex Attwood

Attwood’s political philosophy is “greatly influenced” by Robert Kennedy who once said the role of a politician is to “search out the reasons for alienation and indeed to learn from them.” Other influences are John Hume and Seamus Mallon, who he describes as “icons.”

Married with two children, Nora (4) and Anna (15 months), he enjoys running marathons when he gets some free time.

agendaNi unpacks the plans for a new public transport agency to oversee the province’s sector.

Chief among the new recommendations for reform is that a new public transport agency should be set up, reporting to the DRD. Consultation took place between November 2009 and February this year and a Bill was introduced into the Assembly on 21 June to legally provide for the new proposals.

The new agency will be charged with forming the overall strategy and will also act as a watchdog by regulating the system through public transport contracts.

According to the DRD, the agency is essential to comply with EU regulations. It will also take on awarding route permits, which up until now has rested with the Department of the Environment, and be tasked with filling the gaps in the transport network.

The DRD currently either part-funds or supports some services run by private operators, largely for children and older people, but gaps do exist. There was a possibility that Translink could take the role on but this was decided against as the company would then hold a complete monopoly.

Simply relying on competitive pressures, the department believes, is not sufficient to regulate the sector. Rather direct regulation will “achieve best value for both business and users and tax-payers”.

Travel fares increases will also be kept to a minimum and the new agency will have powers to oversee fares on services that have been awarded through competition as opposed to those awarded directly to Translink.

That company will retain its position as the main operator in the province, although it will be subject to greater regulation. Most services will not become competitive but there are two exceptions: the Belfast rapid transit system, and new park and ride services. Private operators will, though, be invited to work through the new service permit system whereby they could add to Translink services in place at peak times or run routes in areas where there are infrequent or no services.

As only commercially viable services will be passed by the department, it will not provide any extra funding, though the operators will be eligible for a fuel duty rebate.

Launching the consultation in November, Conor Murphy said that he wanted to make public transport people’s first choice instead of a last resort. That modal shift from the car is perhaps the most difficult test the new reforms face. Frequency and reliability contribute significantly to that shift, the paper says, but one other proposal which could help is integrated ticketing.

Ticketing

Although the transport network here is relatively well-connected, ticketing has proved to be a barrier. A system whereby passengers with one single ticket could make journeys made up of more than one route or one mode of transport is proposed, as is a system of off-vehicle ticketing, similar to the Luas in Dublin or the Tube in London.

It is anticipated that such a system would decrease boarding time and overall journey time. Penalties will be imposed for would-be fare dodgers – a problem which honour systems always face.

In keeping with the integration theme, there are also plans to re-designate bus stops as “shared facilities” with other public transport providers. Information would be available in those areas for all providers who use it. Aligning operators’ timetables will also be considered.

Local councils would have a consultative role in the formulation of local public transport plans. As the plans are indeed new, there has been no consultation with local authorities in that sense previously. However, in the plans that cover transport, the Regional Development Strategy and Regional Transport Strategy have always been open for consultation and councils would have been encouraged to respond.

Off-street car parking was to transfer to the new councils in May 2011 but since local government reform has once again been delayed, that responsibility will remain with the Roads Service. In turn then the DRD will have the power to introduce higher car parking charges which could perhaps discourage people from using their cars.

Contracts issued by the new agency would be on a performance basis. They will though, in the main part, be awarded directly to Translink who will add detail to the schedules. Should any voids occur in the service, permits will be awarded to private operators, who will run the service.

The UK Department for Transport will have a say in how the province develops a rail freight sector, which currently does not exist. Exact details have been left to a working group which will report later this year.

Comments

A total of 103 submissions were made in the consultation and 11 public meetings were also held, attended by a total of 194 people. Most of those responding backed continued regulation, the performance contracts, and the concept of a new agency; only a small minority took a free market approach.

Some warned that small operators and community transport providers could be disadvantaged by having to pay for the integrated ticketing system.

Written instructions and station signs will be translated into Irish to fulfil the department’s commitment to the European Charter for Regional and Minority Languages. Most of the 64 submissions on multi-lingual signs supported the idea, especially for Irish, although some responses said that ethnic minority languages should not be ignored.

Alliance: Peace, stability and prosperity

The main functions of the European Union are to provide peace and stability, to maximise prosperity of the region and to ensure that issues of mutual benefit and concern within Europe can be effectively addressed.

The European Union was established after countries could see the benefits of co- operation following the end of the Second World War. Countries realised that working together was essential to cement peace and ensure that further conflict in the region could be prevented.

The role of the European Union has broadened down the years, with it originally being established for stability and to strengthen countries’ economy, to now also focusing on building infrastructure across Europe and helping protect the environment. Europe has had a positive impact on the economies of its countries, with the creation of a common trade zone and the ability of the countries to work as one on common economic aims.

It is particularly useful that the EU is playing such a strong role in environmental protection because pollution does not respect borders and to effectively tackle problems that damage our environment, we need to take a united approach.
Seán Neeson MLA

Conservatives and Unionists: Do less but better

The European Union was founded on the noble idea of building peace, security and freedom in Europe after the horrors of the Second World War. In many ways, however, the EU has abandoned these values in the pursuit of an ‘ever closer’ political and economic union which aims to take more and more power on social, economic and political matters away from national governments.

The ceding of more and more power to Brussels must end. This doesn’t mean that nation states can’t or shouldn’t co-operate on matters of mutual concern. I want to see Europe pursue a policy of practical, common sense co-operation where national governments work together to combat climate change, to promote economic stability in member states and to fight international crime and global terror networks, which in most cases are no respecters of national borders.

The EU can be a force for good but for too long it has ignored the wishes of its citizens by indulging in institutional navel-gazing and the relentless pursuit of ever closer political and economic integration. It is about time Europe did less but did it better.
Jim Nicholson MEP

DUP: Co-operation not control

The DUP has always believed in a Europe of co-operating nations, while opposing the creation of an EU super-state, with all the powers and trappings of nationhood.

The present crisis in the eurozone is a demonstration of two fundamentals. Namely that the sceptical analysis of the euro has been found to be correct and that supporters of European integration remain unwilling to learn anything from this debacle.

Instead of accepting that economics has trumped political will, they have responded with the standard tactics and answers they always do. Rules and promises have been broken and yet more money and powers demanded for the European Union.

The United Kingdom’s decision not to join the euro is disrespected when we are expected to cover the costs of its failure. It is also actively undermined by the demand that the British budget is subject to scrutiny in Brussels, before consideration by Westminster, in pursuit of greater economic governance so coveted by Van Rompuy.

The DUP is clear neither more powers nor more money should be given to the European Union to continue to pursue a political dream that has become an economic nightmare.
Diane Dodds MEP

Greens: Environmentalism without borders

The Green Party in Northern Ireland is a member of the European Greens, a federation of more than 40 parties from across Europe. The European Greens share common policies on economic, political, social and particularly environmental issues.

In 2009 Steven Agnew stood for the Northern Ireland Greens in the European election. His manifesto ‘A Green New Deal’ was common to Green Party candidates throughout Europe. In that election he more than trebled his vote and the European Greens achieved their best ever result returning 46 MEPs.

The Greens have always played a prominent role in the European Parliament and virtually all environmental legislation such as recycling, renewable energy and climate change has been initiated by the Green Party in Europe. This legislation has then been introduced in the various member states, including Northern Ireland.

We therefore work closely with our colleagues in Brussels as the issues which concern us, like climate change, use of fossil fuels, pollution and nuclear policy, are largely global and cannot be resolved within the boundaries of an individual state.
Brian Wilson MLA

SDLP: Best vehicle to tackle global challenges

Since our foundation, the SDLP has been positively pro-European and are active members of the Party of European Socialists, the strongest grouping in the Parliament. As well as being the greatest conflict resolution project in global history, the EU has been hugely beneficial for the island of Ireland, allowing us to establish an independent political identity and to develop our economy and infrastructure. Much of the progressive legislation from which we benefit originates in Europe, and we support the right of other emerging countries to receive support as Ireland did.

The SDLP believes in a Europe not just of economies, but of influence and values. We believe that co-ordinated action by member states will not only improve the circumstances of states within the continent, but is the best vehicle for tackling the global challenges of climate change, poverty, building sustainable peace and a just world economy.

There are undoubtedly improvements to be made in how the EU works for its citizens. While accepting that as a compromise across all states and political ideologies it was not perfect, the SDLP supported the Lisbon Treaty as a means to streamline decision-making and make the institutions more accessible and accountable.

We have lobbied for improvements to EU trade policy, reduction in bureaucracy and a greater role for civil society. We believe that it is the interests of an outward- looking society and of prosperity that Northern Ireland should engage positively and actively with Europe, and are disappointed that Northern Ireland’s three MEPs are at best Euro-sceptic and in some cases rapidly opposed to the project.
Claire Hanna, European Union spokeswoman

Sinn Féin: Democracy, consensus, and equality At the heart of Sinn Féin’s approach to the

EU is a belief in democracy, consensus, and equality.

We want an EU that:

Deepens meaningful democracy and meets the highest standards of accountability;

• Protects and promotes civil, political, social, economic and cultural rights;

• Assists member states in building prosperity and equality;

• Combats poverty, inequality, discrimination and social injustice;

• Pursues environmentally responsible and sustainable policies;

• Promotes conflict resolution, peace building and global stability;

• Protects neutrality, opposes militarisation and the arms trade;

• Assists the developing world overcome global poverty, inequality and disease.

These are the benchmarks against which Sinn Féin assesses developments within the European Union.
Francie Molloy MLA, Committee of the Regions member

Our committee places

Commission

President: José Manuel Barroso (Portugal)

UK commissioner: Baroness Catherine Ashton (foreign affairs)

Irish commissioner: Máire Geoghegan-Quinn (research, innovation and science)

The 27 commissioners are unelected, with each one nominated by a member state government. Once established, the Commission is independent of the governments and tasked with protecting the interests of the EU as whole. Its power rests in its ability to propose legislation, something which neither the Council nor Parliament can do. The other two institutions will then influence the legislation and the Commission ensures that the end result is implemented.

Each Commission is appointed after the European Parliament election, held every five years. Member states firstly agree on a new President, who must then be approved by the Parliament. The President then discusses whom shall fill the other posts with the national governments.

The Council approves the list of commissioners by qualified majority voting and sends that to the Parliament for approval. Each nominee is interviewed and MEPs vote to reject or accept the whole Commission. It is then formally appointed by the Council, again by qualified majority. Commissioners attend European Parliament meetings and can be dismissed by a vote of censure from MEPs. The Lisbon Treaty also requires commissioners to resign if this is requested by the President. They can also be removed by a Court of Justice judgment.

European Council

President: Herman van Rompuy (Belgium)

UK Prime Minister: David Cameron MP

Taoiseach:Brian Cowen TD

The European Council is the top-level grouping of prime ministers and also heads of state, where they have power in government e.g. the French President. The Commission

President is also a member and it has its own President, Herman van Rompuy (pictured). The European Council President is chosen by the Council, using qualified majority voting, for a two- and-a-half year term which is renewable once.

Meetings take place around four times per year and set the strategic direction of the EU.

Council of the European Union

Presidency: Belgium (July-December 2010)

UK Foreign Secretary: William Hague MP

Europe Minister: David Lidington MP

Ireland Foreign Minister: Micheál Martin TD

Europe Minister: Dick Roche TD

The Council consists of ministers from all member state governments, which are therefore democratically elected at a national level. It meets almost monthly and its presidency rotates among countries every six months. A country’s share of the 345 votes depends on its population; the UK has 29 and Ireland seven.

Not all governments are equally accountable to their electorates. In Northern Ireland, the Conservatives are the only national party running for seats so local voters have little say in the UK Government’s formation. Lidington was Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary from 2003 to 2007.

Parliament

President: Jerzy Buzek MEP (Poland)

UK MEPs: 72

Irish MEPs: 12

The only EU institution with its own elections, the Parliament is seen as most democratic part of the EU. Its 736 members have a five-year term. Proportional representation must be used.

Vacancies are generally filled by co-option i.e. an MEP is replaced by a party nominee if he or she stands down. Research by agendaNi suggests that Malta is the only country which now allows for by- elections; the island state sometimes uses co-options instead.

Northern Ireland is one of the few areas of the EU where voters choose their own MEP, by single transferable vote. Ireland and Malta are the other two countries using that system. Just 20 MEPs are therefore elected in person. All others use list systems, where a party draws up its own slate of candidates. These systems assume that people will back a party rather than a person. The first candidate on the list has the best chance of being elected and the last has the least; personal popularity is not tested by voters.

Five countries use regional lists, where the country is sub-divided up into constituencies i.e. the UK (for seats in Great Britain), Belgium, France, Italy and Poland. The remainder have national lists, where the whole country is a constituency. The largest ‘constituency’ is therefore Germany (99 seats), followed by Spain (54 seats). Altogether, the Parliament represents around 500 million people but voter turnout fell to a low of 43 per cent in the 2009 elections. Northern Ireland’s 42.8 per cent figure therefore almost met the broad trend. The UK’s turnout was 34.7 per cent and the Republic’s voters took a greater interest, with 58.6 per cent participating.

Committee of the Regions

President: Mercedes Bresso (Italy)

UK members: 24

Irish members: 9

The committee is an advisory body, comprising 344 local and regional elected representatives across Europe; its term is five years. Northern Ireland has four members: Jonathan Bell, John Dallat, Francie Molloy and Arnold Hatch.

The Northern Ireland Assembly and NILGA make two nominations each, which are then approved by the Assembly. These names are submitted by the UK Foreign Office to the Council, which makes the final appointments and can fill any vacancies.

Economic and Social Committee

President: Mario Sepi (Italy, pictured left)

UK members: 24

Irish members: 9

Also an advisory body, the Economic and Social Committee (EESC) again has 344 members, appointed by the Council in the same proportions as for the Committee of the Regions, and also for five years.

There are three groups of members: employers, employees and ‘various interests’ – the latter is a catch- all grouping drawn from professional organisations, scientists, academics and NGOs. This is designed to make the committee reflect European society as a whole, rather than just the two employment groups.

The UK Department for Business advertises for nominees to the first two groups. The third is filled by open competition with applications being sent to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Final approval in all cases rests with the Prime Minister; the First and deputy First Ministers also need to approve Northern Ireland nominees.

Northern Ireland’s two representatives – Jane Morrice and Mike Smyth – sit in the various interests category. Selection criteria include relevant experience in EESC areas, personal motivation and having time to prepare for attend meetings. Speaking a foreign language is an advantage.

Media missing out?

Journalists see their duty as holding those in authority to account but, according to two MEPs, Europe is the missing story in local pages and programmes.

Jim Nicholson remarked that the farming press gets “miles of print” out of the EU but “to get publicity on any other subject in Europe is near neigh an impossibility.” He pointed out that regional TV stations in England regularly interview their MEPs.

Nicholson thinks that local journalists lack interest in Europe and or “don’t want to find out some of the real stories that are going on.” MLAs tend to be interviewed about Europe rather than MEPs. He admits that EU stories are sometimes complicated but adds that good news, from Europe, does not sell newspapers.

Bairbre de Brún suggests the answer is to “tell stories”. For example, if a journalist was covering a post office closure, he or she would start by explaining its local impact rather than getting tied up in the technicalities of how the decision was made.

“It just takes a little more research for a journalist to do the same thing with the EU. I think that a lot of journalists get switched off by the fact that it’s ‘EU’ and by the fear that their readers will switch off when it’s ‘EU’.” She finds the apathy “amazing” given that many laws in the Assembly have their origins in Europe.

Diane Dodds finds the same difficulty and, as a Eurosceptic, is keen that people are “tuned in” so they can keep a watch on the EU. One relevant story she picks out is the proposal to limit self-employed lorry drivers’ working hours under the Working Time Directive.

The European Parliament provides press accreditation for visiting regional journalists and its UK office organises regular visits to the Parliament.

 

Purpose: to set up and give power to the Older People’s Commissioner’s office.

In its 2005 manifesto, the DUP said the idea of an older people’s commissioner “to combat ageism” should be discussed. This was followed up by a debate in the pre-devolution Transitional Assembly on 19 December 2006 when MLAs called for a commissioner to be appointed.

Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness gave the idea a ‘green light’ almost exactly a year later, on 18 December 2007, but a lengthy period of consultancy and public consultation was to follow. A May 2008 Deloitte report supported the proposal, as there was “no one [government] body which has the concerns of older people as its primary focus”.

Detailed discussions then took place with older people’s charities and other interest groups, leading up to a public consultation from last October to January this year. Most of those responding were in favour.

In the meantime, an Older People’s Advocate, Dame Joan Harbison, was appointed in November 2008; her role is to identify the current problems facing that part of society.

The Commissioner would be appointed jointly by the First Minister and deputy First Minister, for a four-year term, renewable once. This appointment will happen after consultation with older people, selected and trained for the process; the exact method will be decided as the Bill goes through the Assembly. Significantly, there is no compulsory retirement age for the Commissioner.

His or her principal aim will be to “safeguard and promote the interests of older people” and would need to follow the 1991 United Nations Principles for Older Persons.

Specific duties include reviewing the effectiveness of relevant laws and public services, promoting the “elimination” of discrimination against older people, and advising the Assembly and Northern Ireland Secretary.

The Commissioner would have power to commission research and investigate serious cases involving questions of principle. Cases could also be brought to court by the Commissioner and some legal advice provided.

An older person is defined as someone aged 60 or over, although this category could be widened if the point of principle affected people aged 50 or over.

DUP support for a commissioner contrasts with its calls to cut other quangos, including the Children’s Commissioner. A party spokesman said that the new office would need a short time to “find its feet”. The DUP still wants less bureaucracy and suggests letting Great Britain’s Equality and Human Rights Commission cover the whole UK.

OFMDFM estimates that it will cost £500,000 to set up this office and expects an annual budget of around £1.5 million. UUP MLA Tom Elliott has given the plans a qualified welcome but questions the need for such a budget “in a time of financial constraint”.

The department said the estimated running costs are “broadly in line” with the Welsh example and the department will “look continually at ways to minimise costs and ensure value for money.”

Wales already has an Older People’s Commissioner, Ruth Marks MBE, who is a former regional head of the Royal National Institute for the Blind. She took up the post in January 2008. Interviewed by agendaNi a month afterwards, she explained that she had already received many letters from older people. Marks’ priorities were to listen to them, be an “effective voice for change” to improve their quality of life, and use her powers to take action on their behalf.

Scotland nearly had one. SNP MSP Alex Neil introduced a similar Bill in 2006 but it ran out of time before the 2007 election. Broad support for the Bill was voiced at its second stage and, having passed that point, it is currently with the OFMDFM Committee.