Reactions to Sands’ death

A compelling weekly bulletin from the Northern Ireland Office (file NIO/12/194A) describes the first week of May 1981 in grim detail. The medical prognosis of the hunger strikers had a direct bearing on the security situation outside the jail.

“As anticipated in the last bulletin Sands’ condition became critical at the weekend when he lapsed into a coma on Sunday morning [3 May],” it records. “He did not regain consciousness before his death at 01.17 hours early on Tuesday 5, the 66th day of his fast.”

Secretary of State Humphrey Atkins regretted a “needless and pointless death” before adding: “We should not forget the many others who have died.” Atkins urged the people of Northern Ireland to “recognise the futility of violence and turn their faces away from it.” A press statement from republican prisoners blamed the British Government “primarily” for his death but also condemned “politicians and other leading people” for their alleged “timidity and lack of courage”.

The document goes on to report “rioting for most of the day in Belfast” on 4 May and “heavy petrol bombing of RUC targets plus factories, commercial premises and a Methodist church” after Sands’ death. An RUC officer was shot dead in North Belfast on 6 May and an INLA terrorist killed by his own bomb.

A “marked increase in shooting incidents overnight” (6-7 May) suggested that “[IRA] terrorist action will be stepped up to maintain the campaign impetus.”

Robinson’s prison hostage offer

Peter Robinson was prepared to take a government offer to loyalist prisoners holding four prison officers hostage, according to NIO notes (file CENT/1/10/91). The incident happened at Crumlin Road jail and was discussed at a meeting at Stormont Castle starting at 9.15pm on 11 December 1981.

Robinson met NIO Minister of State Adam Butler as part of the Ulster Loyalist Prisoners’ Rights Committee. He warned that “the prison might be burnt down” and said he had been “shouting up to some of the prisoners taking part in the protest and had been told the hostages were being well treated.”

If the committee members could meet the prisoners and take an offer from the Government, he expected that the warders would be released. A Mr McDonald, also on the committee, was “concerned [that] the irresponsible element in the prison would take over completely.”

Butler insisted that third parties could not negotiate with protesting prisoners. “It was a matter for the prison authorities to handle,” as had happened in Great Britain. However, the committee “bore a heavy responsibility if they had the prisoners’ trust and it was essential that they should try to encourage and influence the situation to reduce tension.”

Robinson countered that another NIO Minister, Lord Gowrie, and “all sorts of people” had gone to the Maze to ask the hunger strikers to call off their protest. He warned that if anything happened to the warders, “it would be on the Minister’s conscience.” Ulster Unionist John Carson, a UUP councillor and former North Belfast MP, added: “Protestant feelings were running very high especially when it seemed that Republican prisoners had won all their demands, whilst Loyalist prisoners were being ignored.”

Butler suggested that the committee make an appeal on radio to end the protest, but this was rejected as ineffective. After two and a half hours, both sides agreed that the committee would tell prisoners, through a loud hailer, that they could meet elected representatives if the protest ended; the Government would announce a review of conditions at Crumlin Road for remand prisoners; Lord Gowrie would meet “conforming prisoners” at an early opportunity.

The prison officers were subsequently released.

Leading profiles

Frank profiles of political and church figures by NIO staff (file CENT/1/10/36A) indicate their fears that moderate figures were being overshadowed by loud hard line voices.

Ian Paisley “gained his reputation as a fundamentalist preacher with violently anti-catholic views” in the late 1950s and was “far removed from the old traditional middle class unionism”. His majority in North Antrim was “impregnable”.

Catholic Primate Tomás Ó Fiaich was clearly resented: “His public pronouncements tend to gain him notoriety, believing in a phased British withdrawal from the North. He rejects violence, but has on occasion been far from helpful on the prisons issue.” The main Protestant church leaders, all seen as ecumenical, were viewed much more positively.

John Hume had been “an effective Minister of Commerce” and is described as: “Altogether an academically minded, moderate politician.” Jim Molyneaux is curiously listed third out of the four main political leaders, perhaps reflecting NIO frustration: “Rather lacking in populist appeal, his lack of flair may have contributed to the UUP’s steady loss of support to the DUP.”

The DUP had narrowly overtaken the UUP, in first preferences, at the local elections on 20 May (26.57 per cent to 26.56 per cent), more than doubling its vote from 12.7 per cent in 1977. “Not a charismatic man, but an effective leader” was the summary for Alliance’s Oliver Napier.

In economic terms, Northern Ireland was a “uniquely distressed region of the UK” with “exceptionally high unemployment” (17.6 per cent and 101,522 persons in May 1981) and a “high degree of dependence on declining staple industries”. Several factories were at risk of closure, according to official predictions, and the futures of “Shorts and especially Harland and Wolff are not assured in the longer term.”

‘Catholic support’ for shared college

Many Catholic teachers supported a shared teaching training centre, but feared speaking out “because it might harm their job prospects.” The claim was made by Mr Mallaghan from All Children Together (a pro-integrated education group) when it met Education Minister Lord Elton on 26 February 1981.

The interim Chilver report, in June 1980, called for a Belfast Centre for Teacher Education, which would include a Catholic college, Stranmillis College and Queen’s University’s School of Education on the Stranmillis site. According to the official note (file ED/13/2/544), Mr Mallaghan “suggested that the Roman Catholic Church had orchestrated a response to the report and that many people were not aware of what was in it.”

The Minister was sceptical about public demand as he had received “no such approaches” from members of the public. Lagan College was opened in September 1981 as the first formally integrated school, with 28 pupils. That said, several schools had educated Protestants and Catholics together earlier in Northern Ireland’s history e.g. the mill schools of County Down.

Hunger strike support assessed

The hunger strike had generated “substantial international interest, notably in the US, the Holy See and Western Europe” (file CENT/1/10/36A). The UK had “encountered no difficulties from allied governments over the hunger strike, although it remains to be seen whether President [Mitterrand] will succumb to left wing pressure in France.” Mitterrand’s government included ministers from the French Communist Party.

May was a turbulent time in Europe. Bobby Sands’ death (5 May) was followed by the assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II (13 May) which, the NIO surmised, “has probably had the indirect effect of reducing sympathy abroad for terrorist prisoners in Northern Ireland.” However, officials expected interest to revive when the European Commission of Human Rights (a legal tribunal) declared two complaints by prisoners to be admissible.

Some US television coverage had been “unhelpful” but there had been “some attempt at balance” in recent days. The southern Irish and French media were “notably hostile”.

The Taoiseach (at that time Charles Haughey) had urged the British Government to be “flexible on prison conditions” but was also “careful not to associate himself with the prisoners’ demands for political status.” The briefing warned that “Provisional Sinn Féin sympathisers” could take six seats in the Irish general election, which was held on 11 June. Two Anti H-Block candidates were subsequently elected (hunger striker Kieran Doherty and fellow prisoner Paddy Agnew). Haughey was unable to form a government and was succeeded by Garret FitzGerald. Doherty died on 2 August 1981.

In the USA, dockworkers announced a 24-hour boycott of British ships entering US ports on 7-8 May and Irish bars in New York were closed for two hours as a mark of respect (file NIO/12/194A). The East German Communists described Northern Ireland citizens as “suppressed and subject to discrimination”. Anti-British pickets and arson attacks were reported in several countries.

Financial crises and recessions are nothing unusual. There were 195 stock market crashes and 84 depressions between 1860 and 2006. However, the 2007 crisis marks a turning point in that for the first time the entire world was affected. The trigger was the collapse of Lehmans, which called into question one of the unspoken assumptions of global finance: some banks are too big to fail. This assumption was based on a double guarantee. First, big banks had enough assets to cover potential losses. Second, if not, the government would step in. Both guarantees proved to be worthless for Lehman’s, but when the entire financial system threatened to implode, states acted quickly to restore the second guarantee.

Governments committed $11.4 trillion to saving the system, the equivalent of the 2007 GDP of Japan, the UK, Germany and France combined. That represents a worst case scenario, and includes guarantees that may never be called on or the cost of purchasing assets and equity, whose value may go up. Supporting the banks is a work in progress, so the final cost won’t be known for years. What is certain, is that the initial crisis led to the sovereign debt crisis we’re seeing now. And in addition to shorter term concerns, the legacy of sovereign debt could interact with increased pressures on public finances caused by population ageing.

At the other end of the age scale, there are fears that the crisis could create a ‘lost generation’ of alienated, marginalised young people, given how long it usually takes employment to get back to pre-recession levels. For example, it took the US job market seven years to recover from the previous recession.

Even lost generation scenarios assume that the recovery will be relatively long lasting, and the social unrest and other consequences of frustrated hopes will be relatively circumscribed. But ‘Make Markets be Markets’, by (among others) Robert Johnson of the UN Commission on Financial Reforms, argues that the economic system is in the grip of a “doom cycle”: banks behave recklessly during the boom, confident in the knowledge that during the bust the state will clean up.

Although sound corporate governance and a strong risk management culture should enable banks to avoid excess leverage and risk taking, there will always be players eager to push complex products and trading beyond the needs of the real economy. Indeed, such activity is once again driving the rapid profit growth of some banks, with little learned from the past.

Critical links

The crisis shows how some aspects of the world economy can be both positive and negative, notably interconnectedness. Global linkages help the world to grow richer, but they also facilitate the spread of shocks. Securitisation for instance distributed risk across a larger number of players, with two major consequences. First, it increased interconnectedness among financial institutions themselves, and of these institutions across countries. Second, it gave the impression that risk had diminished. It hadn’t, but individual shares in the risk and responsibility for managing it had become diffuse, creating a false sense of security.

The financial crisis spread rapidly to the real economy, with stock market collapses, decreases in business and consumer confidence, a credit crunch, a sudden contraction in international trade, and a sharp drop in investment.

However, the BRICs (Brazil, India, China, Russia) fared better than most. Their emergence as new global players will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as the decline of the European empires and the rise of the United States. How they exercise their growing power and whether they relate co-operatively or competitively to other powers in the international system are key uncertainties.

The one major certainty is that there will be other shocks, with three characteristics. The fact that a few people such as financial market traders can provoke major disruptions reveals an aspect of today’s global socio-economic system that will grow in importance: asymmetry. Another example would be the panic caused by the fear of a small country like Greece defaulting on its debt. The reason is that the interconnectedness mentioned earlier can amplify relatively small, local problems (such as sub-prime mortgages) into systemic risks.

In addition to asymmetry and amplification, a third ‘A’ is likely to become more important: asynchronicity, for example lags between economic activity and commodity prices or decoupling of countries from swings in the global economy. Asynchronicity undermines the case for global solutions to a number of problems.

The Great Recession was due to the unravelling of tensions in the system. These tensions were not reduced thanks to any government policy, but built up until they exploded into a systemic shock that caused misery for billions of people and would have destroyed the financial system if states hadn’t pumped trillions of dollars into the economy. Is pay up and hope things improve the best we can do?

Profile Patrick Love

Patrick Love is Senior Editor with OECD Publishing and the author or co-author of five books in the OECD Insights series, including one on international trade and one on the economic crisis. He is currently working on the OECD Green Growth Strategy and the OECD project on future global shocks. Patrick blogs at www.oecdinsights.org

The European energy market is the last large scale market which has not been widely harmonised to date. This is unsurprising due to the vastness of the market and its highly technical nature. The EU Third Energy Package, which is made up of a series of directives and regulations, forms a regulatory framework designed to reinvigorate the integration of the European energy markets for electricity and gas.

Aims and goals

It is hoped that the implementation of the Third Package will go some way to meeting the EU targets for 2020 which aim to secure a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases, a 20 per cent reduction in demand and a 20 per cent energy mix of renewables across Europe.

Additionally, the Third Package aims to safeguard consumer interests and promote market competition by providing consumers with the ability to quickly change suppliers and to prevent discrimination in the use of networks by requiring the separation of transmission system interests from those of supply and generation. It also provides for the functional independence of national regulators, such as the NIAUR and the CER.

The process of large scale integration

The logistical problems associated with such wide scale integration are being tackled through the promotion of regional initiatives. The expectation is that by achieving regional integration in the first instance, the wider process of harmonisation will be accelerated by a coordinated approach to the introduction of network codes for cross border flows of energy.

Locally, regional cooperation is being implemented for electricity through the France-UK-Ireland (FUI) regional initiative and for gas through the North West (NW) regional initiative with the process of integration being overseen by ACER, the new European energy body.

Electricity market interconnection

For electricity, the liberalised market will be provided through increased interconnection, with energy flowing from areas of surplus to deficiency in the most competitive way, resulting in reduced energy costs for consumers and increased security of supply.

Initially, large scale investment in infrastructure will be required with significant additional interconnector capacity needed to ensure the unabated flow of electricity. This is of particular importance given the intention to increase the percentage of renewable generation in the energy mix.

Future network infrastructure must be able to cope with increased levels of intermittent generation with there being a risk of higher levels of curtailment and constraint if necessary upgrades are not made. Associated with this is the need to roll out smart grids to predict and intelligently respond to market demands.

These changes will also be delivered through the introduction of harmonised network codes which will deliver a target market model that will be automatically binding to create unified capacity and congestion management codes.

Issues for the SEM

The island of Ireland has had an all-island electricity market since the introduction of the SEM in November 2007. The SEM market trading arrangements are markedly different from those in the other FUI regions, being based on a gross mandatory pool market with day-ahead gate closure and ex-post pricing. There is currently no physical day-ahead or intra-day trading in the design.

The Third Package target model includes flow based market coupling for day-ahead trading, in which cross-border capacity is made available implicitly by means of energy transactions through power exchanges.

Important features in the SEM market design are incompatible with this day-ahead trading model. For example, there is no firm day-ahead price, the SEM is scheduled and dispatched centrally, it provides for explicit capacity payments and it has longer gate closure times. Also, robust arrangements are required for intra-day trading which is seen as critical for systems with a high proportion of intermittent supply through the use of renewables.

In this regard, transitional market arrangements may be put in place by 2014. Many see a two-phased approach as the fastest way to move to full compliance with the introduction of arrangements for day-ahead and intra-day markets with central dispatch. However, certain specified criteria must be met and demonstrated to ACER before this will be permitted.

Others believe that it may be best to concentrate on putting into place final measures by 2016, when an enduring market design is required under the Third Package obligations.

Common Arrangements for Gas

The completion of the Scotland Northern Ireland Pipeline (SNIP) gave Northern Ireland access to natural gas for the first time. Although a relatively new market, it is likely to undergo significant changes in the short to medium term with the introduction of the Common Arrangements for Gas (CAG) which are intended to provide an all-island market in gas.

Although it is still in the development phase, the regulatory authorities on both sides of the border are endeavouring to ensure that CAG is Third Package compliant. The outcome is expected to be a common network code developed to cover all transmission assets in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland with short-term capacity and interruptible capacity products aligned with those network codes.

With regard to Northern Ireland, the fully postalised transmission system regime currently used is likely to change as a result. This regime results in a single tariff being charged to all users at their exit points irrespective of that exit point or the pipeline used. The Third Package requires that tariffs should reflect the actual costs incurred in using the transmission system, so it would appear that an ‘entry-exit’ point design may be adopted.

Further, as capacity on the SNIP is currently only available on an annual basis, it would appear that short term products will be required to be made available to comply with Third Package requirements. These products would be for monthly or daily entry capacities with the methodology used to calculate tariffs likely to follow the Gas Link code to maintain a level of certainly for Irish shippers and to minimise changes from a code perspective.

Our energy future: moving towards compliance

It would appear that there is a great deal of work to be done and it is no secret that the tasks ahead are challenging. However, we should move forward into this new phase of integration with some confidence.

From an electricity perspective, we have successfully integrated two wholesale markets into one before. Although the SEM is not currently compliant, some level of evolution or even revolution, is likely to be accepted by stakeholders.

In relation to gas, CAG provides us with a great opportunity to put in place a Third Package compliant system from its inception, thus providing an all-island gas market which will bring benefits to all.

Alan Bissett is the lead Partner and David Trethowan is an Associate in Arthur Cox’s Projects and Energy Group

Political will is crucial for developing offshore energy, European energy representatives have emphasised.

As part of the Open Days conference, agendaNi attended a seminar on supergrids in the North Sea and English Channel, hosted by the Norwegian mission to the EU. While not a member state, Norway co-operates closely with the EU on energy and produces as much oil as the entire union. In contrast, it generates virtually all its electricity from hydro plants.

Friends of the Supergrid Chief Executive Ana Aguado Cornago said the technologies for supergrid projects are available right now but the main barriers are regulation and the lack of political will. The North Sea political agreement on supergrids (December 2010) had encouraged innovation and she expected other member states to follow UK and Germany if they took the lead.

A European approach was needed as some coastal countries had less wind than others, and relying on their own waters would put them at a disadvantage. Energy had not been “very attractive” as a career for several years but Cornago was pleased to see more graduates entering the sector.

Pension funds were also increasingly interested in investment in the grid, as they were regulated and a secure. She recognised the importance of compensation to protect the environment, contrasting the overdevelopment along the Spanish coast with conservation in the Netherlands. That said, objections held up a Spain-France interconnector for 25 years.

Kees Visser, a councillor from the Dutch port of Den Helder, explained how it would take up the opportunity of offshore wind. The port already serves the North Sea oil and gas fields, has an onshore turbine construction industry, heliport and a turbine test site, and is generating R&D at the Netherlands Maritime Campus.

Specific research areas include blade construction, remote control and the optimal grouping of turbines: “Applied research, innovation and product development for offshore wind offers a new high quality employment. It also develops secondary and higher vocational education for the offshore sector.”

However, the port’s expansion has also damaged the environment, by building on a nature reserve. For compensation, it is required to set aside land for a new habitat. Not surprisingly, Den Helder’s entrepreneurs recommend the clustering of the entire supply chain around ports.

Visser warned that European research needed more co-ordination as many projects duplicated each other, while Chinese and South Korean technology moved forward. He wanted to see “vision towards innovation,” citing the transformation in IT, from supercomputers to the smartphone.

“I think you can’t call a $1 billion industry a left-wing hobby anymore these days,” said Visser (a member of the liberal People’s Party) and he expected wind to become self-financing in 10-15 years.

European Renewable Energies Federation Director Dörte Fouquet was adamant that Europe needed distributed and decentralised renewables. Independent power producers generated more than

90 per cent of German renewable energy. The European Commission and several member states did not understand the need for “energy system change” and still preferred central models.

“We cannot choose and pick some people,” she added, emphasising the need to recognise the future potential of ocean, wave and tidal energy. Denmark stood out as a success story, as it treated renewable energy as industrial policy (i.e. not just against climate change).

Case study: Ostend

The Belgian port of Ostend has opened up two terminals to offshore renewables, including foundation construction. Six foundation structures (each weighing 2,800 tons) have been built onsite by local firm C-Power. The inner port offers a direct rail connection and a

60 hectare open area for future green energy development. The 18 hectare Greenbridge science park is a joint project between the port and Ghent University.

The SEM is a successful cost-reflective wholesale electricity market. It has encouraged new entrants, new investment and competition since its introduction in 2007. Several external policy developments will impact in the future development of our all-island Single Electricity Market (SEM). Some of the key developments include ongoing electricity market reform in the UK and the transition of EU member states’ electricity markets towards compliance with an emerging EU internal electricity market (IEM) by 2014.

The EU Third Energy Package was adopted in 2009 and provides a legislative framework for the establishment of an Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) and the transition of regional electricity markets to a European IEM, which is a strategic aim of the Commission. Following a public consultation, ACER published its Framework Guidelines on Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management (FG CACM) between zones in the EU electricity market on 29 July 2011. The objective of the guidelines is to facilitate enhanced electricity trade within the EU by 2014. The guidelines will be transposed into legally binding network codes through work by the European Transmission System Operators

(ENTSO-E) in 2012. The JBC Group participated in the ACER consultation process. While the implementation of the new IEM model across the EU is scheduled for the end of 2014, the island of Ireland has been granted a two-year derogation that permits transitional arrangements on the Island up to full compliance with the target model by the end of 2016.

The CACM target model reflects a predominant European market design of a bilateral self-commitment market with organised day ahead and intra-day trading. However, the SEM is a centralised pool market, determined by complex bids from generators; it also has an explicit capacity payment mechanism. The transition to compliance with the EU target model may mean a significant change to the current SEM. The nature and direction of that transition is under consideration by the regulators and system operators and will be the subject of a public consultation in early 2012.

The evolution of the SEM towards the European target model for electricity is a priority project. The derogation must be used wisely to optimise flexibility and benefits, minimise regulatory uncertainty and ensure compliance at least cost. The JBC and its membership are actively engaged with the regulators on their SEM Market Integration Project.

It remains to be seen what overall impact the EU target model will have on the Irish electricity market. One point is certain – the transition to the EU target model will require meaningful engagement between all stakeholders in our electricity market.

If you are interested in finding out more about the JBC Energy Stakeholder Group or would like to participate in our workshop in early February which will explore the implications of UK electricity market reform and EU target model on the all-island energy market, please contact kirsty.mcmanus@cbi.org.uk or erik.odonovan@ibec.ie

Nuclear energy doesn’t necessarily have an essential role to play going forward, but it is not “evil” either, according to William Nuttall.

The academic is Director of Cambridge University’s Management of Technology and Innovation (MoTI) Programme and Assistant Director of its Electricity Policy Research Group.

“In the UK, when the ordinary members of the public think of nuclear, they think of themselves as the potential victims of a future accident, or having to live with environmental or safety fears,” he told agendaNi.

Instead, nuclear should be viewed as a technology with a set of attributes and “should be considered against those attributes” as a potential part of a technology mix that would ensure security of supply in the future.

Nuttall believes that nuclear energy’s attributes could be helpful in some contexts. “Nuclear is low carbon, therefore it shares that attribute with renewable. It is in the frame for consideration without subsidy. Relatively few renewables are able to make that claim,” he explained.

Some renewable technologies are very expensive and are in receipt of significant subsidy but nuclear “doesn’t necessarily require that.”

In addition, nuclear is baseload, unlike variable renewables. “Having said that, the prediction of the renewable availability is improving all the time, and a broad base of renewable is less volatile,” he conceded.

There is the possibility that a nuclear power plant could trip out “and go from 1.7GW to nothing in a few seconds” but generally it will “run for months on end and is humming along nicely making power.”

Overall, “nuclear can be a helpful contribution to a mix of options,” but a 100 per cent nuclear electricity system would be “insufficiently diverse.”

Consumers should think of themselves as people who pay an electricity bill, Nuttall believes. “If they thought more about nuclear energy in those terms, they might start to see more of its strengths,” he continued. “Nuclear could be of lower economic risk to consumers and I don’t think they think from those terms,” he surmised.

In a liberalised, competitive electricity market, generators will make decisions that will reduce their risks and advance their interests: “Basically, there is no reason against them investing in, for instance, a gas-fired power station, because if the gas price goes up, they know the electricity price will go up.”

While the choice of building a nuclear power station is “a very risky and expensive proposition,” nuclear power itself has lower cost risks. “So the public, thinking of themselves as electricity customers, see the company they are buying their electricity from is building a nuclear power station, and they know that they won’t have cheap bills but that their bills will have a lower chance of going through the roof. In some sense they’re protected,” Nuttall illustrated.

Furthermore, Nuttall does not believe that 27 different energy policies is in the European interest and instead suggests a centralised approach: “I think that energy policy is naturally an issue that should be the exclusive competence of the European Union and all aspects of energy policy should be passed to Brussels.”

Europe’s economy will be left behind without a green recovery, according to Bairbre de Brún. Extra investment is needed in the environmental sector but her fellow MEPs want more corporation tax.

Climate change is a key interest for de Brún who is this month representing her GUE/NGL group at the UN climate change conference in Durban. GUE/NGL, which stands for the Confederal Group of the European United Left – Nordic Green Left, is the Parliament’s sixth largest group with 34 MEPs.

The aim at Durban is to get progress on a replacement for the Kyoto protocol, although the USA refuses to back Kyoto unless emerging economies agree to cuts. De Brún warns that specific targets and timetables for action are needed “to hold off the possibility of dramatic and catastrophic climate change.”

She demands that industrialised countries move towards a low carbon economy (which in practice pollutes less and emits fewer greenhouse gases) but also wants them to agree on how to finance and manage a ‘green climate fund’ to support developing countries. That fund would allow developing countries to cope with existing climate change and help them “develop their economies without going down the dirty path that we went down,” the MEP explains.

Asked for her level of optimism, de Brún accepts that this year’s conference will be “very challenging” because of the US elections, the economic crisis and the way that is used as an excuse for inaction. Against that argument, she points to the 2006 Stern report, which found that moving towards a more sustainable economy would create jobs.

“My only hope would be that if countries move away from the kind of stand-off that there is at the moment – ‘I won’t do if you won’t do’ – to an approach where they’re coming together to reach a common solution to a common problem,” she comments.

Strong climate targets and timetables must also be set by the European Union and the Assembly. Sinn Féin’s 2009 European manifesto called for a mandatory 20 per cent increase in energy efficiency by 2020. Its Assembly counterpart calls for a long-term renewable energy strategy for the North and “adequate resources” for the Green New Deal.

America and China are already pressing ahead with green stimulus packages (despite rejecting Kyoto) and Europe risks being left behind, especially as China invests in low carbon technologies.

“We have done some good work at home,” she comments, “but instead of continuing at that, we could end up moving too slowly, being afraid of investing in this because of the economic crisis, and then finding, when we decide to go that road, that we’re buying from China rather than exporting to China and the other growing economies in the world.”

It is put to her that the A5 upgrade (championed by Sinn Féin) would have increased carbon emissions. She responds by saying that the Executive needs to draw up an overall climate change strategy (backed up by investment) and then decide what projects will or will not go ahead.

The North West, she adds, has demanded road improvements for road safety but has also sought new rail development, which she would welcome. De Brún then talks of the need for sustainable transport and adds that the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute could help to develop this field.

Green investment has multiple ‘wins’ but energy efficiency stands out for her. Some areas of England have focused on investing in home insulation, which not only helps the construction industry and reduces carbon emissions but prevents premature deaths among older people.

De Brún’s other priorities include securing a Peace IV funding package, supporting the Basque and Palestinian causes, and CAP reform. She is holding a series of meetings with farming and environmental organisations, and introducing them to Commission officials and ministers: “I’ll be following it every step of the way, amending the legislation to ensure we get the best deal possible with win-win solutions for farmers and the environment.”

As Europe continues to struggle with its financial crisis, she describes the EU as “still fairly resilient” and predicts a way out if the union promotes job creation and economic growth, and allows member states to do the same.

“If it continues in the way it’s going, we’re not going to get out of the crisis because more austerity, further centralisation of decision-making is, in my view, just making the problem worse,” she observes. However, growth can help to detoxify the banking system” and tackle sovereign debt.

A proper stimulus package could then be constructed. In her opinion, a recovering EU can help to green and modernise the economy, putting it on a stronger position against its emerging competitors.

Sinn Féin has stated its support for lowering corporation tax in Northern Ireland but, in contrast, its European colleagues are arguing for the opposite.

In November, GUE/NGL President Lothar Bisky criticised the Commission for not considering “increased taxation for banks, large corporations and the wealthy.” Back in 2007, German left-wing MEP Sahra Wagenknecht described low corporate taxes as “ever more unfettered … wild capitalism” which only benefitted a minority in society.

A Sinn Féin spokeswoman told agendaNi that because GUE/NGL is confederal group, “different MEPs and different parties in the group take different positions on a range of issues.” The positions taken by the group “are not binding on the component parties or MEPs.”

Rising costs and interference mean the UK is better off outside the EU, according to Diane Dodds. The DUP MEP discusses Northern Ireland’s place in Europe and her priorities with Peter Cheney.

Diane Dodds is in the conflicting position of wanting the best financial deal for Northern Ireland in Europe and also wanting the UK to quit the EU, therefore cutting off those funds. However, she sees no such contradiction when the point is put to her.

As part of a net contributor, Northern Ireland must “get more back out of Europe than it currently does” and leaving the EU would ultimately mean getting back “all the millions and billions that we actually pay in.”

The UK’s net contribution was £9.2 billion in 2010-2011. Dodds recognises that Northern Ireland has benefitted from Europe, especially through CAP and the Peace funding, but her basic principle is sovereignty. “I don’t want people from 26 other different countries in Europe deciding what I can or cannot do with my money,” she states.

Food focus

Making the most of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Common Fisheries Policy reforms is Dodds’ main priority at present. Both policies directly affect lives in Northern Ireland and she sits on the relevant European Parliament committees.

£268 million has been paid out to date from DARD’s 2010 single farm payment budget.

Two battles stand out in CAP: the ongoing European talks and challenging the UK Government, which wants to move money from farmers’ support to environmental schemes. In Dodds’ view, CAP should be “a food policy not an environment policy” and she claims that many Conservative and Unionist pronouncements would not “sit easy” with farmers in Northern Ireland.

The phrase Conservative and Unionist, of course, harks back to the UCUNF pact. Jim Nicholson was the only successful candidate. The DUP is keen to connect the UUP with unpopular government policies. Later, Dodds pledges to hold the Conservatives and Unionists responsible if the UK Government fails to hold a referendum on treaty changes. And ultimately, she wants a referendum on the UK’s membership; the DUP has consistently called for the UK’s withdrawal.

Dodds predicts a growing demand for a poll: “No matter what Cameron said at the [Conservative Party] conference, the Government will be edged towards allowing people a free choice and because we are net contributors, because this place costs every citizen in the United Kingdom, then I believe that we need to have a say in where we’re going.”

The Daily Telegraph calculates that in 2010 each household made a net contribution of £299 towards EU funds. Her husband Nigel helped to present a 100,000-signature petition to Downing Street, separate from the e-petition which triggered the House of Commons vote.

“No country can live unto itself. We need to be able to trade with our European partners,” she explains. “What we don’t want is the federalism and the invasion and the intrusion into the minutiae of national life that these institutions represent.”

Calling referendums runs against the British parliamentary tradition, but she says that argument has “long since passed the post” as UK voters approved EU membership i.e. the 1975 referendum.

All EU institutions are “convulsed” by the debt crisis and the need to set priorities for the 2014-2020 budgeting cycle. Given the waste and bureaucracy in the EU, she supports a cut in the overall budget (currently projected at €1.03 trillion) and says that a smaller version could still fund CAP, the structural funds and the Cohesion Fund.

Foreign affairs

The European External Action Service is, to Dodds, a key example of waste. Launched last December, this is the EU’s new diplomatic arm but its Commissioner, Baroness Ashton, has been “given an impossible job, to try to form a coherent foreign policy for 27 nations”.

Ashton, for example, was unable to give a coherent response when MEPs debated Palestinian statehood in September. “Foreign policy is the prerogative of member states,” Dodds maintains. The service’s 2011 budget is €464 million.

Israel is a “long-held interest” of Dodds. She has no objection to giving aid to Palestinians but finds that the European Parliament “can sometimes be a lonely place for those who speak out in support of Israel.” Two EU-Israel trade agreements, on industrial and pharmaceutical products, were signed and approved by the Council of Ministers in May 2010 but have been held up in the Parliament. The delay, she explains, is holding back cutting edge research and potential medical treatments.

The MEP says that the “pejorative language” of occupied territories should be avoided, even though the term is broadly recognised: “If we go into a situation with pre-conceived views to tell people how to do things then we will never be able to work with those people.”

Instead, she focuses on building blocks for peace e.g. the inclusion of Arab-Israeli women in the workplace. Asked whether she is uncomfortable with the loss of British personnel in the Israeli War of Independence, Dodds responds: “We cannot keep going back and back. As a democratic politician, I want to see democracy flourish. Israel is a democracy in every modern sense of the word.” She adds: “I am a friend of Israel but not an uncritical friend of Israel.”

She rejects the idea of abstaining from the Parliament as her manifesto commits her to going to Brussels. Back home, her office has drawn up a funding guide for community groups and non-profit organisations. Her overall ambition is to end British EU membership. Norway, she stresses, enjoys free trade agreements outside the EU before lamenting on “the disadvantages of the working time directives, the social and employment legislation, and all of the red tape and hassle and money that this place involves.” To put it another way, Diane Dodds hopes the day will come when MEPs are no longer needed.

Jim Nicholson wants to promote a new narrative about Northern Ireland, with more businesses exploring European opportunities. Peter Cheney asks him about his current impressions of the EU.

Europeans still associate Northern Ireland with conflict but a single visit makes visitors want to come back. That’s what Jim Nicholson found when he organised a regional tour for the bureau of his European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group.

MEPs were “highly impressed” with Parliament Buildings despite the September rain, took a trip to the North Coast “and they really loved the scenery and they’ve all said they’re coming back.” Imagine the contrast in July when the Short Strand and Ardoyne riots made international headlines, making members question whether it was safe to go.

“So we have got to be aware,” he surmises. “Our image is still there and every time the people of Europe see bombing, rioting, cars burning, the old image comes back … We’re going to have to work, I think, for some time before we get rid of that image.”

As expected, Nicholson names agriculture and fisheries as his two main priorities. By 2014, he wants to see a less bureaucratic Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), producing good food and giving farmers a “fair living”.

Common Fisheries Policy reform must give “more local control” to fishermen. Current plans would let groups of member states decide how to implement policy but the Commission could still intervene if problems arise.

“Hopefully if we can get those two things done, then we will have done quite a good job,” he adds, before emphasising the need to “educate and encourage” Northern Ireland’s SMEs and entrepreneurs and opening doors for them in Europe.

As part of the ECR visit, Nicholson hosted a business breakfast to highlight European R&D funding and he wants to see more businesses coming over and finding new opportunities on the continent.

“If you’re going to get Northern Ireland working again,” Nicholson states, “I believe we do it through the development of our small and medium-sized enterprises because I believe they have the best potential.”

Rather than focusing on large inward investors, politicians need to work with local men and women who have ideas and “the determination to deliver”.

Influence

In keeping with his leadership campaign pledge, David Cameron took his MEPs out of the federalist European People’s Party (EPP) and formed the more sceptical ECR group in June 2009. The group is now the joint fourth largest in the Parliament (56 MEPs) but the EPP remains the largest with 264 MEPs.

Nicholson rejects the suggestion that this move puts Northern Ireland at a disadvantage: “I would put forward the view that I am in the strongest group in the Parliament. I am now in the group that’s the fourth largest group in the Parliament. I am now in the group that is actually growing and not getting smaller.”

The ECR gained two MEPs through defections this year and he expects it to take two committee chairs when the Parliament reaches its half-way point in January.

In a larger group, Nicholson would “never” have been appointed as a co-ordinator on the Agriculture Committee, where he leads on the CAP’s dairy package, and could have lost his full committee membership. He contrasts his position with Diane Dodds who, he claims, has “no influence at all” as a non-inscrit and Bairbre de Brún’s “communist-orientated” group (GUE/NGL has 34 members).

His main reflection on the continent’s fiscal turmoil is that Europe “has always done too little, too late to actually stop the crisis continuing.” Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy had just claimed to “have solved the problem again” at a weekend summit before Franco-Belgian bank Dexia was bailed out by governments.

Nicholson credits Gordon Brown (a rare tribute) with keeping sterling but stresses that the euro crisis’ local impact cannot be ignored: “The fact that we are outside of the euro zone gives us some degree of comfort but I give the warning that if the euro zone goes into meltdown, don’t expect that we will not be affected by it. We live in a globalised world now. All currencies are going to be affected by any kind of meltdown.”

The Republic and other smaller euro members have handed their financial sovereignty to Germany and France, he remarks, and Nicholson hopes those two countries can bring Europe back to more stable growth.

Need for debate

As for the UK’s own membership, Nicholson is “quite happy to have a referendum” but also wants a real debate to “clear the air” on the pros and cons of the European Union. He also expects a poll on any new treaty.

Turning on the eurosceptics, he asks: “Are they certain if they were out of Europe tomorrow morning, that there would be the same money going into agriculture, same money going into rural development, same money going into many of the other areas?”

The UK’s net contribution was £9.2 billion in 2010-2011 but Nicholson predicts that Westminster would have different spending priorities from the European Commission: “Does anybody in Northern Ireland believe that any United Kingdom Government are going to give the support to our agricultural industry that’s presently coming?”

Serious questions have to be asked about how withdrawal would affect Northern Ireland’s trade with the rest of the EU (accounting for 49 per cent of manufacturing exports) and the UK’s international position.

“I think the people of the United Kingdom have got to ask themselves one real question: ‘Do you really want to be part of Europe or not?’ If you don’t, then get out. If you do, then take a leading role in moulding it into what you want it to be.”

British ambivalence towards Europe means that that Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy now drive European policy, he explains.

While stronger than the euro, sterling is weaker than the dollar and, in his view, has survived because of the Coalition Government’s fiscal policies.

Commonwealth countries, which accounted for much of the UK’s pre-1973 trade, have now switched to the Far East. Ultimately, he thinks that the alternative is nostalgic: “The world has changed from that time we went in. You just simply can’t rewind the clock and go back to some kind of utopia.”

Foreign observers are warning that an inward-looking and risk-averse Europe will fall behind the rest of the world. agendaNi asked American and New Zealand diplomats for their perspective on a continent in crisis.

Vangelis Vitalis is New Zealand’s Ambassador-designate to the EU, and the son of Greek migrants. “The euro zone crisis is transfixing us in Wellington,” he states. However, Vitalis is also troubled by Europe’s changing sense of perspective.

“If I look over Europe now, even in the month that I’ve been here, I’ve been struck by how inward-looking Europe has become and the feedback that I get is that there’s likely to be an intensification of that inward-looking nature of Europe,” he warns.

With more than 50 per cent of the world’s GDP generated in the Asia-Pacific region, he predicts that Europe will lose its global influence if it fails to engage with those economies. Vitalis is keen to pitch New Zealand’s case: a small, agriculturally-based economy diversifying into data services and software. It hedges its bets by negotiating free trade agreements and his goal is a comprehensive agreement with the EU within 2-3 years.

The EU’s external relations are a lesser known but growing part of its work, especially after Catherine Ashton’s appointment as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Key EU foreign policy decisions are agreed unanimously by all 27 countries but others go through by majority votes.

Ambassadors from 165 countries are accredited to the EU. America’s mission is a growing operation and, after Lisbon, is engaging more with the European Parliament.

A solution to the euro zone crisis is seen as essential to the US recovery. At the EU-US summit in November, Barack Obama warned that a contracting European economy made it “much more difficult for us to create jobs at home”.

The Administration also thinks that US policy on data protection and climate change is misunderstood in Europe.

MEPs criticised American attitudes to privacy when considering the new US-EU agreement on passenger name records. The Patriot Act is still partly in force and the USA has separate data protection laws for different sectors, unlike the single EU Directive. US Attorney-General Eric Holder maintains that that both systems protect privacy “effectively but in our own ways.”

US senators rejected the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which would have established an emissions trading system, in June 2009. The US regards the EU’s decision to include aviation emissions in its system from 1 January 2012 as a ‘tax on airlines’. Instead, it calls for a binding global framework through the International Civil Aviation Organisation.

New Zealand, in contrast, has the only emissions trading system outside the EU and is keen to work on this common ground. It also launched the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research at the 2009 Copenhagen conference and wants to see more European researchers and scientists taking part.

The US Ambassador to the EU, William Kennard, has criticised the precautionary principle for holding back innovation in European agriculture. Kennard, a former communications regulator, said that regulators should “decide what is safe based on science” rather than dictating what consumers choose.

New Zealand and the USA are far apart on population (4.4 million compared to 312 million) but both emphasise their shared values with Europe. Other trading partners, such as Saudi Arabia and China, may be good for business but lack democracy. Vitalis concludes that the challenge for the New Zealand-EU relationship is “not to take each other for granted but to turn that all around and make something more out of it.”