Progress is promised on reforming education and local government after long delays.

Apart from health and libraries, the last Assembly term was largely a missed opportunity for “Delivering High Quality and Efficient Public Services”. The draft Programme for Government’s reform plans, under that title, will be judged on whether education and local government are streamlined.

Social clauses are due to be the first achievement of reform, introduced in 2012-2013.

The most tangible benefit should be better access to life-enhancing drugs. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis, cancer, inflammatory bowel disease and psoriasis (a skin condition) are prioritised. DHSSPS officials have previously delayed their dispensing, citing financial reasons, resulting in more hardship for Northern Ireland patients.

Executive parties plan to agree the post-2015 structures of government in 2012 (as the UUP suggested) despite a previous commitment to review that by 2011. Major changes will also depend on amending the Northern Ireland Act 1998 at Westminster.

OFMDFM cannot confirm whether the public will be consulted. Members of the public, though, can lobby MLAs on the Assembly and Executive Review Committee at any stage.

Peter Hain’s seven-council model, unveiled in November 2005, was due to take shape in May 2009. Executive ministers compromised on 11 councils and rescheduled elections for May 2011, although plans fell apart over boundaries and costings. Under the new plan, those elections are expected in June 2014, with the new councillors taking office in May 2015.

The 11-council commitment was passed by the DUP, Sinn Féin and Alliance. The SDLP and UUP still aim for 15, claiming that these would be more local, mean less gerrymandering and save money. Eleven councils appear cheaper but would mean more severance payments for senior officials.

The education and skills authority (ESA) was also announced in November 2005, with an April 2008 deadline, and then put back to April 2009 by the new Executive. Its future became embroiled in the education dispute between Sinn Féin and the DUP, and fears that the main Protestant churches (transferors) would lose their influence.

Eight bodies will be merged into the new authority: the four education and library boards, their staff commission, the Council for Catholic Maintained Schools (CCMS) and the Youth Council. The futures of the Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment, and the Education and Training Inspectorate are still to be decided. Most other education bodies will see little change.

Its 20-member board will have eight seats for political representatives (allocated by d’Hondt), eight for the main churches and four filled by Education Minister appointees. The Chair will also be appointed by the Minister.

Sectoral support bodies will be set up for the controlled sector (a first) and Catholic maintained sector (replicating CCMS) to protect their ethos. Legislation is due to be completed by July 2012, with aim of setting up the ESA in April 2013.

An increase in online services will build on the NI Direct website and also ensure continuity as public sector jobs are cut. The DUP says that car tax renewal, all public sector job adverts and all benefit applications should be available online, and (along with the UUP) suggests a pilot for broadcasting court cases.

A summary of energy policies advocated by the Assembly parties.

DUP
Enterprise, Trade and Investment Minister: Arlene Foster MLA
Westminster Energy and Climate Change Spokesman: Jeffrey Donaldson MP
Assembly Enterprise, Trade and Investment Spokesman: Robin Newton MLA

The DUP’s 2010 Westminster manifesto supports the 40 per cent target of electricity from renewables, and states that farmers should be assisted in helping government meet this target without increasing the cost of electricity. It commits to expanding incentives for home energy efficiency measures, supporting a substantial increase in the winter fuel payment and establishing Northern Ireland as a global centre for the development of renewables and smart grid technology.

Its 2011 manifesto promises rate relief for businesses investing in energy efficiency, a strategic grid infrastructure development plan and further interconnection with the South and Great Britain. It promises to publish an Offshore Renewable Energy Strategy, a target of 10 per cent of heat consumed coming from renewables by 2020 and a simplified planning process for renewable technology. The DUP supports an extension of the gas network and a province-wide retrofit programme. To combat fuel poverty, it would implement a boiler scrappage scheme, and develop an energy assistance package.

In 2010 Arlene Foster published a Strategic Energy Framework 2010-2020. Her department has also published a draft Offshore Renewable Energy Strategic Action Plan and a Bio-energy Action Plan for 2010-2015. In June the Minister launched a public consultation on extending the natural gas network and her department is also considering a mandatory domestic energy supplier obligation. Common North/South retail market arrangements for gas are expected to be completed by October 2014.

Sinn Féin
Assembly Energy Spokesman: Phil Flanagan MLA
Dáil Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Spokesman: Martin Ferris TD
Seanad Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Spokesman: Trevor Ó Clochartaigh

Sinn Féin’s Westminster manifesto calls for a greater focus on low carbon, energy efficient, affordable housing, with similar high standards applying to all new build and public buildings. The potential of the renewable energy sector needs to be harnessed, and Sinn Féin rejects nuclear energy. Mechanical biological treatment (MBT) of waste and anaerobic digestion combined with combined heat and power (CHP) is the party’s preferred waste-to-energy solution, ruling out incineration. The second North/South interconnector should be built underground and energy infrastructure decentralised through renewables, within the context of an all-Ireland energy strategy.

This year’s Assembly manifesto states the party would establish targets and timetables for the reduction of fuel poverty, develop a long-term renewable energy strategy and provide adequate resources for the Green New Deal.

Commitments in its Dáil manifesto this year include the creation of a green technology firm to manage Ireland’s energy resources. It would provide and fund energy and cost €100 million, with the aim of making Ireland energy independent by 2020.

UUP
Enterprise, Trade and Investment Spokesman: Mike Nesbitt MLA

While the pact between the Ulster Unionist Party and the Conservatives is over, energy commitments in the 2010 joint manifesto remain. It commits to the promotion of low carbon energies such as nuclear, wind, clean coal and biogas. The joint manifesto promises spare capacity in the energy system, an ‘electricity internet’, work to make the Single Electricity Market (SEM) more competitive, the sharing of innovations in smart grid and smart meter technology, and the establishment of an emissions performance standard to limit greenhouse gases from power stations.

A gas storage facility off the coast of Northern Ireland is supported and it is committed to exploring how household energy bills can provide information on moving to the cheapest tariff offered by the supplier and how a customer’s energy usage compares to similar households.

In its Assembly manifesto, the UUP promises incentives to invest in energy saving technologies and says the planning system needed reform to prevent delays with renewable energy projects. It says it would focus on identifying and exploiting sources of renewable energy, including on the public sector estate.

Alliance
Assembly Enterprise, Trade and Investment Spokesman:  Trevor Lunn MLA

Alliance’s 2010 Westminster manifesto proposes incentives through the tax and rating system to encourage energy efficiency. The renewable obligation certificates system needs to be reviewed and a feed-in-tariff system considered. The party seeks further development of the single energy market on the island and development of the new North/South interconnector. It would also increase the winter fuel payment.

Alliance wants to increase investment in renewable energy and the grid and promote energy efficiency. Reducing energy could be achieved through the creation of business improvement districts. Fuel poverty is highlighted in its 2011 manifesto as a problem requiring targets in a Green New Deal and a review of the fuel poverty strategy.

The party seeks to cut fossil fuel use by 50 per cent over 1990-2020 and the introduction of a Marine Bill to coordinate marine management.

SDLP
Enterprise, Trade and Investment Spokesman:  Alasdair McDonnell MP MLA

The SDLP supports investment in the renewable energy sector and believes it can contribute to the rural economy. Its 2010 manifesto calls for an all-island energy regulator and the introduction of social tariffs on energy provision for older and disabled people.

A new ‘department of energy and sustainability’ should be created, the party believes, and its 2011 Assembly manifesto proposes the insulation of 100,000 homes, retrofitting of more Housing Executive homes, and all-island renewable energy and energy security strategies. It wants to see the scope for price regulation, to incentivise the grid to facilitate wind farm capacity, explored. The party supports a unified gas transmission network and a single gas market by 2015. A green jobs strategy is proposed. The party also wants an action plan to increase renewables in the transport network.

Voters in South Belfast may be back at the polls early next year, due to Alasdair McDonnell’s election as SDLP leader. He will become its only double-jobbing MP when Margaret Ritchie leaves Stormont in January.

The party has a commitment to end dual mandates (after backing a UUP Assembly motion in November 2009) and has confirmed to agendaNi that McDonnell will make his decision “soon”. The move is already overdue as the motion set a deadline of 2011. The new leader effectively faces three choices: leave Parliament, leave the Assembly or change policy.

Resignation from Westminster would cause a by-election, which is normally called within three months of a vacancy. The May Assembly poll was the most recent with all main parties taking part.

Back then, the DUP polled 7,845 first preferences to 7,718 for the SDLP. Alliance was third with 6,390. The Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein battled for fourth place (4,382 and 4,038 respectively).

South Belfast has been a DUP target since McDonnell’s win in 2005. Rev Martin Smyth had previously held it for the UUP (1982-2005) and unionist parties have since accused each other of splitting their vote. However, demands for a single unionist candidate are a clear sign of weakness. Alliance is growing in strength.

The 2010 general result was skewed as Sinn Féin stood aside. McDonnell’s majority was 5,926, although this included an unknown number of republican voters. Turnout has steadily declined, from 62.4 per cent in 2007 to 52 per cent in 2011.

Winning South Belfast brings the added prestige of holding a university seat, although the constituency also includes several deprived inner city areas.

Resignation from Stormont is far less likely as it would take McDonnell out of the local political fray. The Assembly’s co-option procedure allows the party leader to nominate a new MLA, who would first be selected by the SDLP constituency association.

McDonnell could also abandon the policy and stay as MP and MLA. This would attract some criticism but is consistent with all previous SDLP leaders. Seven other MPs still double-job: Sammy Wilson, Gregory Campbell and the five from Sinn Féin. However, Owen Paterson’s plan to end the practice could force McDonnell to step aside later on.

South Belfast (officially known as Belfast South) was formed in 1885, dissolved in 1918 and reconstituted in 1922. As the Boundary Commission has earmarked it for abolition at the 2015 general election, McDonnell, or his successor, may be the constituency’s last MP.

Microsoft founder Bill Gates is believed to have once famously said: “If I was down to my last dollar, I would spend it on public relations.” It is widely accepted that in recent years whilst spend on advertising and marketing has decreased, investment in corporate affairs and corporate responsibility has continued to increase. It is no longer viable for a public relations practitioner to see their role as delivering column inches or broadcast coverage for an employer or client. Although still often seen by many as largely media relations focused, the top public relations professionals today are essentially reputation managers, dealing with a wide spectrum of stakeholders.

With the onset and growth of both the

24-hour news cycle and social media, CEOs and directors are well aware that they need to have their fingers on the pulse of potential reputational opportunities and threats. There are no longer comparatively long lead times to deal with issues and positive news now also has to be shared across a multi-media platform.

With the continued stability of our local Executive and Assembly, public affairs has also dramatically risen in importance. Legacy issues have left us with an abundance of civil servants, arms length bodies and quangos, but undoubtedly more power and authority is gradually coming back to its rightful place – under the stewardship of elected representatives.

Whilst engaging with ministers is important, so is engaging with individual MLAs, committees, advisors, policy officers, clerks, councillors and constituency teams. As we continue through the second full-term at the Assembly, more focus is directed on the debate that there are too many public representatives working at Parliament Buildings. Whilst this debate is far from clear cut, what is obvious is that we are in a better place now that these key local stakeholders are in place to challenge and to champion the issues that are important to the people of Northern Ireland.

Simon Little is Communications Manager at Phoenix Energy Holdings.

The public affairs industry in Northern Ireland has witnessed a slow evolution, with only a handful of agencies being able to truly claim expertise and experience in the specialism. With the advent of devolution, the lobbying industry has grown to a moderate level in comparison to the wider communications sector but remains relatively small.

Many clients are expressing the importance of public affairs and the real value that it provides in light of a greater number of practical decisions being made by our politicians. The industry has become more tuned-in to the fact that clients, or potential clients, need to know about policy when it is being formed and not reading about it in the papers.

As the Assembly matures, we have noticed that more of the organisations that we represent are placing public affairs objectives within their corporate strategies and integrating them with their public relations programmes. This is a wise move as political monitoring, engagement, and the provision of expert briefing to our elected representatives all assist in mitigating risk and creating an environment where there are fewer surprises.

Public affairs in Northern Ireland has more or less been the preserve of the non-profit sector as they are more akin to the campaigning aspect. However, the better placed agencies are witnessing notable growth in business community involvement, particularly among the multiple retailers, renewable energy companies, financial institutions and professional services.

Let’s not forget that public affairs is inextricably linked to the discipline of public relations and requires creativity and new ideas on a constant basis. The evolution of the industry is in the hands of those who are embracing the opportunity that social media is providing and integrating public affairs activity with wider public relations campaigns.

Chris Brown is Client Director, Public Affairs, at MCE Public Relations.

Traditional DUP conference rhetoric stood in stark contrast to Robinson’s appeal to moderate voters. Meadhbh Monahan reports.

“There can be no greater guarantee of our long-term security in the union than the support of a significant part of the Catholic community,” Peter Robinson told delegates at the party’s annual conference on 26 November.

Sammy Wilson’s comparison of Sinn Féin members’ children to hunger strikers and Nigel Dodds’ criticisms of all Irish nationalists, including Enda Kenny’s call for a Pat Finucane inquiry while “trying to neuter” the Smithwick Tribunal, grated against Robinson’s calls for a shared future and an end to ‘no surrender’ politics.

Delegates also listened to a debate on the DUP leading a pro-union campaign for unionists in Scotland and Wales. Members also attended sessions on financing local government and a Health Service for the 21st century (which was addressed by Edwin Poots and had a £50 charge). The concept of registered party supporters, which would see more people “ease themselves into membership of the party itself,” was introduced and more female members will be sought.

Outlining a new direction for the DUP, the party leader stated that, contrary to some accusations, he does not want a society which is “carved up rather than shared.” In order to end the division in Northern Ireland, the ‘them and us’ attitude must be replaced with ‘all of us.’

However, insults were directed, not only at Sinn Féin, but at the SDLP (Wilson wearing sunglasses in a jibe at Alasdair McDonnell), the Greens and the media. Arlene Foster tackled the Irish News and Robinson attacked Stephen Nolan, saying: “It’s not the size of your jaws but your vote that gives you the right to speak for the people.”

The leader’s speech began by outlining the DUP’s dominance in Northern Ireland politics and its “rise from the ashes” after being punished by the electorate for entering government with Sinn Féin. Robinson lamented the direct rule days when “every aspect of British life in our province was attacked and diluted.”

He took credit for a long list of successes e.g. investment from major global companies, getting onto the international map for film, free public transport for pensioners, frozen student fees and the Presbyterian Mutual Society package. An embarrassed party member worried: “Why is no one cheering?”

Shared education, endorsed by Robinson in October 2010 must be “advanced”, he told delegates. It wasn’t until he outlined the party’s aim to introduce tougher sentences for attacks on pensioners that the party faithful applauded. A DUP Assembly motion on mandatory sentences for those attackers was narrowly passed by 44 to 41 on 29 November with David Ford saying sentencing should be at the discretion of the judiciary.

The next roar of approval came when he dismissed all-island institutions (despite DUP participation) and pointed to the fact that Stormont has “a unionist majority, enacts British laws … and [has] the union flag’s red, white and blue flying from the flagstaff.” This contrasted with the stony silence in the hall as Robinson outlined that as “the first generation of peacetime unionists”, they should respect the province’s “varied and colourful traditions”.

Making a choice

Robinson emphasised the party’s “unalterable” core values and beliefs. It is hard to judge the reaction of party members, who are notoriously kept in line by the disciplined party, but their impromptu rendition of ‘We shall not be moved’ again contrasted with the leader’s message. Gregory Campbell commented that the membership would follow the leader as long as the core values are protected.

In setting out a pathway for the next 100 years, getting the votes of Catholics who are happy with the current situation in Northern Ireland will be essential; 52 per cent of Catholics in the 2010 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK. Naomi Long’s success in East Belfast and Alliance’s potential to take more middle class unionist votes is the likely impetus for the DUP’s new image. The strategy also compares with Sinn Féin’s attempts to ‘reach out’ to unionists.

An unexpected quote from Bobby Sands that the IRA’s revenge “would be the laughter of our children” was described as “narrow” and Robinson’s altered version was: “The DUP’s ambition will be the laughter of all our children, playing and living together.”

When asked about his reaction to the party’s new stance, Mervyn Storey told agendaNi that it reflected the reality in society.

“We can make a choice; we can either continue to live in a divided society which brought us much of the pain, anguish and sorrow that we’ve had for 40 years or we can face up to certain realities,” he said.

He sees “a healthy inter-dependence” in the province “that [is not] a threat to people who have particular values, especially if those values can be cherished and shared.”

While the DUP are the largest party, Storey conceded that some of the extra votes may have come from unionists intent on keeping Sinn Féin away from the first ministry. “That is a reflection of trust because they had other unionist parties that they could have endorsed to take that position,” he argued.

The DUP’s priorities for 2012 are “delivery on manifesto commitments, delivery on our promises to the people and delivery of a stable and long-lasting union,” according to Ian Paisley Junior. He has dismissed the Assembly as being “more like a grand county council rather than a regional parliament” (agendaNi, Issue 47, page 124). When asked what the DUP can do to improve this, he replied: “As the largest party we cannot afford to be complacent. We are in a position to deliver our mandate and must be efficient on all levels: council, constituency, Assembly and Westminster.”

On day-to-day working with Sinn Féin, Paisley Junior stated: “That’s the arrangement we are in; coalitions are never easy.”

Former prisoner Conor Murphy said Sammy Wilson’s comments were “a disgrace” and reflected badly on the Executive as a whole, while Belfast’s Lord Mayor Niall Ó Donnghaile said the comments were “offensive, hurtful and ran contrary to the theme of the DUP conference.”

The party’s questionable commitment to “one, united, shared and peaceful society” was one story from the conference but its attacks on other parties and the media were divisive and opposite to a shared future.

Ulster Unionists are weighing up their place in the political system and considering how to reverse a long decline.

Peter Cheney reports on the conference.

‘Common Sense Government’ seemed the right slogan for a longstanding conservative party, again settling into the Executive but several Ulster Unionists see their future outside that fold. Around 400 UUP delegates gathered for the party’s annual conference in Armagh on 22 October.

For now, though, the party is focused on improving government from within. Most parties want smaller government and have gone into detail about what the revised departments should do. Tom Elliott, though, proposed how and when to achieve it: a cut from 12 to eight when justice devolution is reviewed next year. It is the most obvious opportunity for change before the next Assembly election.

Turning to his own party’s performance, Elliott warned that voters needed reasons to vote UUP, one being the Executive’s delay and apathy. A “sky high lack of interest in politics” was a danger for all parties and Northern Ireland was ruled through a “flawed democratic process”.

The fact of power-sharing and the Assembly’s survival for four years was not good enough: “How long do we keep telling people that it’s better than what we used to have?” In a neighbourly gesture, Mary McAleese was praised for her contribution to peace. Pressure to leave government is growing but the status quo has allowed Danny Kennedy to scrap car parking charges in town centres and influence the future of transport and water policy.

Ulster Unionists are keen to restate their role in leading unionism through the Troubles and taking risks for the peace process. The House of Commons’ failure to invite the party to a commemoration for murdered MP Robert Bradford (mistakenly described as a DUP member) caused hurt. Some inquiries into the Troubles are seen as rewriting history with a bias against the state.

Links

History is always in the air at UUP conferences but it appeared that members were becoming more realistic about the party’s future prospects. It’s always tempting for them to look back to the days when the UUP was dominant (which ended six years ago) but it now finds itself in a much weaker position. The gap before the European Parliament in June 2014 gives the party a breathing space to consider two key questions: how to link with the Tories and whether to go into opposition.

Owen Paterson’s appearance highlighted the UUP’s failed pact and continuing partnership with the Conservatives. Members appreciated Westminster’s support for Presbyterian Mutual Society members and tax-cutting plans for corporation tax and air passenger duty. Elliott had campaigned on “no more UCUNFs” but clearly wants to have some Tory link e.g. within a centre-right federation if the Scottish Conservatives become more independent.

Too close a link with the Conservatives at a time of spending cuts will be politically costly. However, the more embarrassing relationship is between its members and the Orange Order. Party Chairman David Campbell was “ashamed and disgusted” at a Belfast lodge’s protest over Elliott and Kennedy attending Constable Ronan Kerr’s funeral and robustly pointed out how previous leaders showed the same example. Mike Nesbitt put in a strong performance in the economy debate. Fellow former journalist Fearghal McKinney demonstrated the “trust” and “hand of friendship” between the UUP and SDLP by chairing a panel discussion. Both parties are going through a considerable amount of soul-searching about their future but the UUP is in a more stable position under Elliott’s leadership.

The conventional media story is one of continual UUP decline. At Assembly level, the party has shed almost half its voters since the Belfast Agreement (a net loss of 84,694 first preferences). It lost two Assembly seats and 15,614 votes between 2007 and 2011, and 16 councillors and 25,113 votes between 2005 and 2011. The Westminster collapse is well-known.

However, that is not the full picture as the table below shows.

Tom Elliott has not recovered ground but the decline has apparently stopped, with a support base fluctuating between 80,000 and 100,000 voters. The difference between the council and Assembly figures may be due to supporters voting DUP to stop Martin McGuinness becoming First Minister.

The UUP is winning in the west and south but losing the east of the province. It’s ahead of the DUP in five councils (Armagh, Banbridge, Fermanagh, Newry and Mourne, Moyle) and in the Newry and Armagh constituency.

Those successes need to be weighed against dismal performances in greater Belfast where most Ulster Unionists came in on the late counts, well behind Alliance. The UUP’s centre of gravity is well outside the capital (perhaps near the Cathedral City) and, overall, it remains a long distance behind the DUP.

Opposition in practice

Accountability at Stormont can improve if a proper opposition is provided, according to speakers at a Young Unionist fringe meeting. Essentially, they wanted to see the UUP acting as a clear alternative to the DUP rather than sharing collective blame for bad Executive decisions.

Michael Shilliday explained that speaking time and finances for researchers depended on the number of MLAs per party, not a place in government. An official opposition would require specific funding but “democracy costs money”.

Ed Miliband’s office is allocated £700,699 for 2011-2012.

The UUP would obviously lose access to Executive papers but, under the Westminster system, the official opposition is sent an advanced copy of ministerial statements. Sceptics fear that leaving the Executive will give the DUP and Sinn Féin a free hand. Shilliday said that the UK Supreme Court could strike down legislation that ran against British liberal democracy.

Reg Empey noted that all parties had to have “a hand on the wheel” at the time of the Agreement but no-one envisaged that those structures would last forever.

The pro-opposition lobby hopes to persuade grassroots members and is prepared for a detailed debate. It also wants cross-community support for change, and sees Alex Attwood and Conall McDevitt as the most supportive SDLP members.

Peter Cheney sums up the SDLP conference, where Alasdair McDonnell got off to a shaky start as leader. The party has dipped to a new low but members are determined to increase its standing again.

Posters of Patsy McGlone and Conall McDevitt greeted arriving delegates along the approach roads to the Ramada Hotel, while inside McGlone’s team was conspicuous in their green T-shirts. This promised to be a livelier SDLP conference than the norm.

In her final speech as leader, Margaret Ritchie claimed that “the people at the top have lost touch,” accusing Peter Robinson of being “too well insulated from the grinding hardship of citizens” while Martin McGuinness was “too consumed with aspirations of living in a palace in Dublin, to really care anymore.”

For SDLP achievements in government, she cited the house-building programme, and blocking the UDA-linked Conflict Transformation Initiative in 2007. Ritchie paid tribute to Alex Attwood for fighting Tory welfare reform. “And to think some people questioned why I gave him the job” was a clear nod to Patsy McGlone. Tellingly, Attwood returned the tribute in his concession speech, the only leadership candidate to name Ritchie.

A packed hall gathered to hear the result and the counts were declared in rapid succession. The new leader’s acceptance speech was well received, marking as it did “the proudest moment of my political life” for McDonnell. An SDLP recovery was not important for its own sake but also for “the future politics of this island”. In the place of an agreed Ireland, the DUP and Sinn Féin were dividing up the spoils like “Afghan warlords”.

As he thanked his wife Olivia, she moved forward and held his arm. Campaigning days had sometimes started at 8am and finished at 1.30am the next morning. He pledged to hit the road again, visiting every council area and constituency within three months.

Each candidate’s campaign put forward ideas to make the party more organised and better financed. The party prides itself on its openness and willingness to debate its internal workings, although that carries the obvious risk of appearing disorganised and needy.

McDonnell has pledged to listen to his former opponents’ ideas, which include a new public representatives group (McDevitt), working with other parties to submit petitions of concern (McGlone) and much closer links with the Irish Government (Attwood). Dolores Kelly was formally declared deputy leader, having been unopposed.

The new leader’s keynote speech was a presentational failure but party staff were frank about the reasons for the technical glitch (lights reflecting off a halting autocue) rather than trying to spin their way out.

He took the ‘bull in a china shop’ analogy “as a tribute to my reserves and my passion which tempered with wise counsel can produce an awful lot”. The party had become “hypnotised” by the Good Friday Agreement which was now stalled by the DUP and Sinn Féin: “Why should these sectarian turkeys vote for a non-sectarian Christmas?”

His organisational style had been trialled in South Belfast in 2005 and produced a “greatly enhanced performance” in 2010. agendaNi witnessed an impressive canvassing operation in the constituency during the general election but the wider electoral trends are downward. Members do recognise, though, that McDonnell has a stronger media profile than Ritchie.

The SDLP has fallen alongside the UUP but arguably is better placed to recover. Members were energised by a four-candidate leadership election (conducted without the glare of publicity) and the party is better than the Ulster Unionists at bringing younger activists into elected posts.

Statistically, it lost 66,993 voters between the heady days of 1998 (when it topped the poll) and May’s Assembly election. Most of those walked away during the turbulent days of the first Executive and results since then have varied around the 100,000-mark.

At the 2010 general election, it polled 110,970 votes: a slight increase from 105,064 in 2007. However, this dropped to 94,286 first preferences this May, resulting in the net loss of two seats. Sinn Féin, in contrast, received 178,224 first preferences.

The party polled slightly more strongly at local government (with 98,724 first preferences) but lost 14 councillors compared to 2005.

Sinn Féin easily outflanks the SDLP on all-island politics. However, its participation at Westminster (as constitutional nationalists have done since Daniel O’Connell) is a practical advantage. Highlighting a restriction on eastern European voters, Brid Rodgers commented that SDLP MPs “can use their muscle to try and things changed,” adding: “There’s not much point in sitting outside and crying.”

After focusing on keeping Sinn Féin onboard during the peace process, the Irish Government is understood to be sympathetic to the SDLP’s situation. The frankness of so many members and activists in discussing the party’s problems indicates that they think the party has little to lose, and can no longer hold on to the ‘glory days’ of John Hume and Seamus Mallon.

The McDonnell agenda

“We are in danger of being unable to fight elections because we simply don’t have the money” reads one warning in McDonnell’s stark pitch to SDLP members. An expert commission will report to a special organisational conference within three months. McDonnell’s first 100 days should also see a major public seminar on economic regeneration and the setting up of a dedicated election directorate.

Clearly identified party representatives will be appointed in the three Antrim constituencies, Fermanagh and South Tyrone and Strangford.

In a candid assessment, his election leaflet says the current organisation “cannot deliver the votes we want and need”. A “handful of active branches” are prospering but many “hardly ever meet”. The party had missed a generation and “is paying dearly for it now”. Getting votes in ballot boxes is seen as central as people “like to back winners”. His aim of 20 Assembly seats was last achieved in 1998; the party slipped to 18 in 2003.

McDonnell stresses social democracy but also warns that “Block Grant Politics” will squeeze the poorest. All shades of nationalism and unionism need to discuss the economic future. And with McDonnell expecting the SDLP to lead on this, the party plans to stay in government.

The party got 16,480 votes (2.5 per cent) and one seat in May but Allister argued: “I’d rather be a lone voice any day and have my principles intact than be part of such despicable duplicity.”

Stormont was described as a “cocoon of DUP-Sinn Fein misrule” where, in the previous week, the environment and transport ministers were over-ruled by their “DUP-Sinn Féin masters”.

By reading between the lines or through his “special advisers in surprising places”, Allister revealed potential plans to remove the crown emblem from prison officer uniforms, prompting Peter Robinson to threaten resignation. This is an example of effective opposition, something that the UUP and the SDLP should consider, the North Antrim MLA contended.

The lack of “meaningful government” was criticised and Ian Paisley Junior’s reference to it as a county council (first reported in agendaNi) was right, he added.

Dolores Kelly (SDLP) has responded that opposition shouldn’t be ruled out, but added that the Good Friday Agreement supporters don’t want the parties to “walk out on the Executive.”

The UUP’s Assembly manifesto said there should be an official opposition in place by 2015. “The idea of the Ulster Unionist Party going into opposition is purely a matter for the UUP itself, and that is a decision which this party will take should the circumstances merit,” Tom Elliott told agendaNi.

The TUV’s work in the Assembly was outlined by press officer Sammy Morrison i.e. questioning money spent on the GAA versus the IFA, voting against increased tuition fees for students from Great Britain, and Allister’s private member’s Bill seeking to ban people convicted of a serious offence from being a special adviser.

With 6,031 votes (0.9 per cent) the party gained a single seat. However, with 41,039 votes (1.8 per cent) in the Republic, the Greens lost all six seats in the Dáil following their unpopular coalition with Fianna Fáil.

A motion from the Antrim branch to create a Northern Ireland party rather than remain a region of the Irish Green Party was rejected. Attendees included Environment Minister Alex Attwood and Irish Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.

Agnew stated his intention to “be constructive and not oppose for the sake of doing so”. He recognised he has limited opportunity to make an impact but cited a successful motion to encourage sustainable school transport. He also outlined his private member’s Bill which calls for a statutory duty on government departments to co-operate on children’s services.

The party agreed to continue its campaigns for same sex marriage, raising the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14, opposing fracking and all oil drilling in Northern Ireland, and reducing pensioner poverty.

While he admitted to disagreeing with his opposition counterpart Jim Allister, Agnew conceded that “at least he knows where his point of view comes from,” adding that some MLA are having “their point of view handed to them on a sheet of paper, and actually when you talk to them they don’t even agree with the thing they read out.”

Agnew intends to work with “good politicians” like Attwood to try and get green policies implemented “because we can’t do it on our own.”

You wait months for some news of government action on the economy and then three arrive almost at once. The Northern Ireland Executive finally issued their draft Programme for Government, with a free gift of an Economic Strategy, both exuding a soft Keynesianism to soften the sharp edges of the Chancellor’s austerity mania, known as Plan A.

Then the Chancellor knocked out his Autumn Statement. If the PfG represents Plan B-minus, the latest bad news from Gideon Osborne was Plan A-plus, and the promise that this will take at least six years rather than four. Plan A is not working, apart from the first part, about shrinking the state. The rest, that the deficit would be addressed and that a rejuvenated private sector would transform social workers into skilled exporters of hi-tech trinkets and thus ‘rebalance’ the economy, is actually heading for zero growth and debt reaching 95 per cent of GDP. This was the response from Fitch Ratings: “The capacity of UK public finances to absorb adverse economic and financial shocks that would result in yet higher public debt while retaining its ‘AAA’ status has largely been exhausted.”

In order to evaluate the worth of the PfG and the Economic Strategy, we must understand the context in which it will operate and the political fact that we as a region are as sovereign as Greece or Italy. All we can do is tinker with the details. We are under the diktat of the Treasury, and the only real manner in which the Northern Ireland Assembly can challenge that is with the combined moral force of a coalition of all three devolved administrations and as many English councils as we can muster.

For example, promises to ‘promote’ 25,000 new jobs should take into account the 80,000 young people who will leave school over the four-year period of the PfG. Plans to ‘achieve’ £300 million in new foreign direct investment and a further £300 million in research and development are actually quite close to what was achieved since the last PfG.

In fact, most of the few solid commitments with dates and numbers are actually very modest. The rest is worthy but vague, and would actually be almost radical if implemented, such as the direct connection between public health and infrastructure, the emphasis on improving and evolving skills, and supporting social clauses on public procurement. Privatisation or PFI goes unmentioned and the public sector is seen as the clear driver to rejuvenate the private sector, the precise strategic opposite to Plan A.

The Keynesianism is, however, to be paid for through neoliberal methods: cutting corporation tax and business rates and scrapping air taxes. How this will work in practice is anyone’s guess. It certainly doesn’t work like any theory I’ve ever heard of.

As a response to Plan A, it lacks more than ideological coherence. It requires a political strategy, as outlined above. The severity of the Autumn Statement makes this clear. Take the tiny sliver of capital spending announced (mostly for Tory districts). This is to be paid by cutting the value of working family tax credits, Gordon Brown’s great legacy to the working poor. The Tories hate this, and most middle-class liberals don’t notice its importance, but it has helped lift over two million children out of poverty.

Meanwhile, Cameron and Osborne are off batting for Britain at EU summits, ensuring that the UK’s worst employers will be freed of the shackles of the Working Time Directive and the unreformed, unregulated and unpunished investment bankers can be unworried by an EU-wide financial transaction tax.

The new threat to Northern Ireland is regional pay for the public sector. The only way is down and a 10 per cent cut in the public sector pay bill would mean over £500 million less demand for the local private sector. Add to that another

£500 million from welfare ‘reform’, £50 million from state pensions changing from RPI to CPI, a de facto 15 per cent cut in public sector pay through freezes and a 1 per cent increase, stagnant private sector pay, plus another 30,000 unemployed on top of the 110,000 already looking for work in Northern Ireland and you have the frame in which the PfG must operate. It is not, to put it mildly, an adequate response.