Belfast West

West Belfast is set for a change. From this general election, the Boundary Commission’s recommendation for the constituency to include Dunmurry and part of Derriaghy will come into play.

On the face of it, the boundary changes will only increase Sinn Féin’s hold on the safest seat in Northern Ireland; sitting MP Gerry Adams enjoyed the support of 70.5 per cent. Adams is pipped only by Joe Benton’s 75.5 per cent in the very safe Labour seat of Bootle, in Liverpool.

In the 2005 local government elections, the Dunmurry Cross district returned 6,362 Sinn Féin votes and 2,203 for SDLP. The DUP were ahead in the unionist stakes with 1,393 and the UUP returned 691.

With the DUP’s Diane Dodds making the journey to Brussels last June, the DUP has yet to select a candidate. That party’s vote did increase from 2005 to 2007, but only by seven votes.

In 2007, Sinn Féin’s vote fell just slightly to 23,631. Local rivals SDLP, however, also lost votes, polling just 4,110 in the area.

Alex Attwood will be hoping to increase his share of the vote this time out but will not have realistic ambitions of taking the seat.

Gerry Adams has not been without his problems but even amid allegations of a child abuse cover-up, there should be very few obstacles to returning a deep green candidate this time round and it is widely expected that he will continue his almost unbroken run of MP for the area since 1983.